Tracking the Tropics: Invest 92L off Cabo Verde Islands is likely to become a tropical depression

The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa for development that has become better organized. Chances for development have increased to 80% over the next seven days and 90 percent over the next two days as of the 8 a.m. Sunday update from the National Hurricane Center.

Given the forecast data, it looks likely at least a tropical depression or storm may form at some point next week as the disturbance progresses west around 15 mph to 20 mph across the Atlantic Basin. The next name on the list is Bret. 

It’s important to note: this disturbance is more than 4,000 miles away from North America right now and it’s too early to determine right now where it will eventually track and how strong it will become.  As of now, there is no threat to any part of the United States.  We’re just in monitor and update mode now and the disturbance moves over the open ocean. 

Historically, tropical systems don’t form this early in the season in the area of the Atlantic called the “main development region.” That’s the zone between Africa and the Caribbean, where storms often flourish late in hurricane season like during the months of August, September and October. 

Typically early in the season like where we are now, tropical development occurs closer to home in places like the Caribbean, Gulf, or U.S. East Coast.

What’s playing a big role in this early-season eastern Atlantic disturbance is the fact that water temperatures are running well above normal for this time of year. It usually takes the Atlantic several more months to warm up to the point it is right now, which is why the eastern Atlantic typically doesn’t become busy until later in the season. 

For now, most of the forecast data shows whatever tries to spin up over the eastern Atlantic curling out to sea before approaching the United States. Because of the early stages of this tropical feature, it’s just too early to tell where it will eventually move.  We’ll keep you updated on NBC2 News as needed. 

Are you ready for hurricane season? Now when things are quiet is a good time to get started. Brush up on your tropical weather knowledge with the NBC2 Hurricane Guide+ here