- A recession has arrived in the US but it’s gone unnoticed, according to top economist David Rosenberg.
- Rosenberg highlighted data showing back-to-back declines in US Gross Domestic Income to support his argument.
- In an earlier tweet, he said the S&P 500 is already flashing signs of a recession as key stocks have tumbled.
A US recession has already set in but “nobody’s noticed,” according to top economist David Rosenberg.
The Rosenberg Research founder and president pointed to Thursday’s Gross Domestic Income data – a key measure of economic activity – which showed a 2.3% first-quarter decline on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, after contracting 3.3% in the fourth-quarter of 2022, as evidence of a recession.
“Averaging it out with GDP, the economy has contracted for back-to-back quarters and in 4 of the past 5! The recession has arrived and nobody’s noticed,” Rosenberg said in a Thursday tweet.
The veteran economist has consistently made pessimistic calls about the US economy this year. In an earlier tweet, Rosenberg said the benchmark S&P 500 index is signalling a recession as key stocks closely tied to the real economy have plunged.
“The question always comes – why isn’t the S&P 500 signalling a recession? Answer: it is,” he said.
Recession fears have been plaguing investors for months now, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from near-zero levels to more than 5% over the past 14 months in a bid to cool inflation. That, combined with a turmoil in the banking sector and a subsequent credit squeeze, has fueled concerns the US will tip into recession.
In late March, Rosenberg warned that a recession has already hit US corporate profits– and that’s bad news for the stock market too.