Chicago, IL – November 6, 2024 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Vertiv VRT, The Progressive PGR and BlackRock BLK.
It is finally election day and investors are wondering what’s in store for the stock market. Historically, presidential elections create short-term volatility as investors react to the outcomes, especially in sectors most likely to be impacted by the new administration’s policies. However, it’s a common misconception that presidents have much control over market performance.
While decisions on tariffs, taxes, and fiscal policy can definitely influence certain sectors, the president’s direct impact on the overall stock market is often overstated. Instead, broader economic trends, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy are typically far more influential on long-term market performance.
Above all, focusing on stocks with consistent growth in both revenue and earnings, reasonable valuations, and top Zacks Ranks has proven to be a far more reliable strategy than trying to anticipate how political changes might impact the stock market. Stocks such as Vertiv, The Progressive and BlackRock enjoy all these bullish characteristics and should thrive regardless of the president.
In the last several elections, the S&P 500’s reaction has followed some notable patterns, influenced by the political context of the new administration. For instance, the market tends to respond with moderate gains after a Democrat’s win, which often reflect optimism about economic stimulus or infrastructure initiatives. After President Biden’s 2020 victory, for example, the S&P 500 gained approximately 5% in the following month, as investors anticipated robust stimulus measures for COVID-19 recovery.
When Republicans win, immediate post-election market reactions have typically been more enthusiastic, with investors often expecting business-friendly policies like tax cuts. After Donald Trump’s 2016 election, the S&P 500 saw a 1.1% jump the next day, rising around 5% over the month amid optimism for reduced regulations and corporate tax reforms. While Republican victories often spur a short-term boost, long-term effects tend to depend on the administration’s approach to trade, spending, and fiscal responsibility.
In general, markets experience some volatility after elections, but sustained trends depend more on fundamental economic factors than on the President alone.
Despite the media focus on elections, a president’s power over stock market outcomes is relatively constrained by the broader economic environment and global factors. While policies like taxes and regulation can have targeted impacts, other forces—such as Federal Reserve policy, economic cycles, and unpredictable events—often hold more weight. For instance, President Trump’s tenure saw market turbulence unrelated to policy, such as the 2020 pandemic-driven crash. Similarly, while President Biden has faced inflation challenges, the Fed’s monetary stance has likely been a larger influence on market conditions than any specific policy.
Political factors like Congress composition and bipartisan gridlock also limit a president’s ability to enact sweeping changes. In cases where policies do pass, market reactions are not always straightforward, reflecting investor sentiment, economic context, and unforeseen consequences. Both Trump and Biden have faced hurdles and mixed outcomes in policy implementation, underscoring that while the President’s agenda is important, stock markets are shaped by many forces beyond the White House.
Rather than reacting to short-term political shifts, investors can achieve more consistent returns by focusing on high-quality companies that demonstrate strong growth and fair value metrics. Stocks like Vertiv, Progressive, and BlackRock offer these desirable characteristics. Here’s a closer look at why these companies may be worth holding through market volatility and potential political change.
Vertiv is a leader in providing data center and critical infrastructure solutions, which are in high demand as digital transformation and cloud computing expand across industries. With a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Vertiv boasts steady revenue and earnings growth projections due to its strong position in a growing sector. The company’s focus on data infrastructure makes it resilient to economic and political shifts, as these services remain essential regardless of political conditions.
Progressive, one of the largest auto insurers in the U.S., has a history of strong financial performance and resilience through various market conditions. PGR benefits from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with robust revenue and earnings growth expectations. Insurance stocks often provide stability in a portfolio, and Progressive’s focus on innovative pricing models and digital tools further enhances its long-term potential. This positioning helps the company to grow even when other sectors may feel political and economic pressures.
BlackRock, a global leader in asset management, stands out due to its robust revenue and earnings potential and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). With trillions in assets under management and a diversified portfolio of investment products, BlackRock is strategically positioned to weather political and economic changes. Its ability to provide both active and passive investment solutions allows it to capture revenue across various market conditions and investor preferences, keeping it relevant and profitable through cycles of uncertainty.
History has shown that stock performance hinges more on the fundamentals of companies than on political outcomes. Focusing on stocks with consistent growth in both revenue and earnings, reasonable valuations, and strong Zacks Ranks—such as Vertiv, Progressive, and BlackRock—can be a far more effective strategy than reacting to political speculation. By building a portfolio with fundamentally strong, resilient companies, investors can stay on course through elections and beyond.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) : Free Stock Analysis Report