The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index managed to sustain higher last week. This keeps the bias positive after the indices witnessed a sharp rise in the previous week. The Dow and S&P 500 were up 0.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.9 per cent.
Will the US benchmark indices rise more from here? Here is our analysis:
Dow Jones (47,954.99)
The support at 47,300 has held very well. That keeps the bias positive. Another support is at 47,000. A rise to 48,500 looks likely from here. If the Dow manages to breach 48,500, then the upside will open up to see 50,000 in the medium term.
As mentioned last week, the region around 50,000 is a strong resistance which can halt the rally. We can expect the Dow to reverse lower thereafter and fall to 48,500.
To negate the rise to 50,000, the index has to fail breaking above 48,500 and fall below 47,000 in the next two-three weeks. That in turn can drag the index down to 45,000.
S&P 500 (6,870.40)
The index has sustained above 6,800 and has risen well last week. The region between 6,800 and 6,750 will continue to act as a good support and limit the downside.
The previous high of 6,920 can be tested now. A break above it can boost the bullish momentum. Such a break can take the S&P 500 index higher to 7,100 and even 7,200 in the coming weeks.
The 7,100-7,200 region is a strong resistance. A rise beyond 7,200 will be difficult. The S&P 500 index can turn down from this resistance zone and fall towards 6,900-6,800 in the coming months.
NASDAQ Composite (23,578.13)
The NASDAQ Composite index has managed to rise and close just above the key resistance level of 23,500. Immediate support is at 23,400. The index has to sustain above this support to keep the outlook positive. If it does, then a rise to 24,000 looks possible in the short term. It will also keep the doors open to see 24,800-25,000 on the upside in the medium term.
This bullish view will go wrong if the index fails to get a strong follow-through rise from here and declines below 23,400. In that case, a fall to 23,000-22,900 is possible.
Dollar outlook
The dollar index (98.99) fell last week to test the support at 98.80 in line with our expectation. Although it is holding above the support for now, the price action on the chart indicates weakness. Another support is at 98.60 which can be tested this week. The index looks vulnerable to break this support. Such a break can increase the downside pressure and drag the dollar index down to 97.20-97 in the coming weeks.
However, before this fall happens, a short-lived corrective bounce from around 98.60 to 99.50 is a possibility. For now, the chance of a rise to 101 that we have been mentioning in this column stands negated.
Treasury Yield
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.14 per cent) has risen sharply last week. The 4.15-4.2 per cent resistance zone can be tested this week. It is critical to see if the yield manages to break above 4.2 per cent or not. A break above 4.2 per cent will strengthen the pace of the rise and take the 10Yr Yield up to 4.3-4.35 per cent.
On the other hand, if the yield reverses lower from this 4.15-4.2 per cent resistance zone, it can fall back to 4 per cent and even lower again.
The price action last week shows a divergence between the treasury yield and the dollar index. If this divergence sustains, then the rise to 4.35 per cent on the 10Yr Treasury Yield will still be possible even if the dollar index falls to 97.
Published on December 6, 2025