Trump’s Trade War Upends Soybean Market With No Aid In Sight

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The United States’ soybean harvest is more than halfway complete, but farmers are hurting. China, once the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, continues to boycott purchases from the U.S. as President Donald Trump’s trade tit-for-tat escalates.

Trump’s trade war with China has pushed the U.S. soybean market into a tailspin, after purchasing half of America’s $24.5 billion soybean crop last year—mostly to feed the country’s pigs. But without any purchases from China all year, soybean prices are falling and storage could become scarce.

In the wake of that distress, the Trump Administration said it would spend tens of billions to support these farmers, but that aid has been pushed back indefinitely due to the government shutdown, Wisconsin Public Radio reports. Republicans have estimated that U.S. soybean farmers need as much as $50 billion. That’d be more than double what was given to farmers during Trump’s first term trade war in 2018 when China levied reciprocal tariffs on U.S. soybeans and, as the New York Times reports, “the fallout was so painful.”

The Democratic National Committee is also picking up on the discontent, and Politico’s Morning Ag notes that this week the party is rolling out “a five-figure ad campaign that will target a dozen red Midwestern districts on YouTube TV and other streaming services” ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The 30-second video showcases Illinois soybean farmer John Bartman, who talks about the realities of how tariffs are impacting his livelihood, and says: “We don’t want a bailout. We want a market. Bailouts are band-aids. What he is doing is destroying our markets. And when those markets disappear, we are not going to get them back.”

The impact is starting to be felt in other places, too. Take what’s happened in the local housing markets of Des Moines, Iowa and Omaha, Nebraska. Real estate aggregator Redfin’s data shows that two out of five homes for sale in those areas have experienced a price drop—which is roughly double the national rate. And when we consider that most of the soybeans American farmers plant are not for tofu or other culinary uses—instead they feed livestock in factory farms or are used as an industrial ingredient in biodiesel and plastics—we can start to realize the full extent of how just deep the uncertainty in the soybean market could soon be felt elsewhere.

— Chloe Sorvino


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The Feed

Ceasefire Watch: The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems to be holding, CBS News reports, though several unresolved issues are “testing [Trump’s] plan to turn it into a sustainable peace.” Israel’s blockade of food and supplies into Gaza pushed the region close to famine, but with it temporarily halted, more humanitarian aid is flowing into Gaza. The United Nations confirmed that “real progress” was being made.

And the Associated Press reports that “food distribution sites run by the controversial U.S. and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation are being shut down under the terms of the ceasefire deal.” The sites were located in Israeli military-controlled zones. “Palestinians desperate for food had to walk for miles daily to reach the site past Israeli troop positions. Witnesses said Israeli troops fired heavy barrages to keep crowds from moving before the sites’ opening or from leaving designated roads. Once at the sites, thousands of aid-seekers scrambled in a mad rush to get to food boxes. The Gaza Health Ministry says more than 2,500 people were killed and hundreds more wounded seeking aid, either on route to GHF sites or when Israeli troops fired as crowds massed waiting for U.N. aid trucks entering Gaza. In either case, Israel said it fired warning shots.”

Instant Checkout: America’s largest grocer is embracing AI fully. A new partnership between Walmart and OpenAI will allow its shoppers, as well as Sam’s Club members, to order directly through ChatGPT, as Forbes reports.

Heavy Metal Contamination: Protein powders and ready-to-drink protein shakes may have unsafe levels of lead, according to Consumer Reports, which tested 23 popular powders and shakes and found that more than two-thirds of products tested have more lead in a single serving than is safe to consume in a day. “Nearly all the plant-based products tested contained elevated levels of lead,” and two—Naked Nutrition’s Mass Gainer and Huel’s Black Edition—tested as having so much lead that Consumer Reports cautions against ingesting them entirely. The data is deeply concerning, particularly for vegans and vegetarians who rely on plant-based protein powders for their daily nutritional intake. Yet, according to the study, plant-based protein products registered as having nine-times more lead than whey-based products, and double the amount as beef-based proteins tested.



Let’s Hang

Tuesday, October 28, 9:30 a.m. – 6 p.m.

I’m thrilled to be returning to my alma mater for the 1st Annual Food and Agriculture Policy Summit co-hosted by José Andrés, Food Tank, the Global Food Institute at GW, and the Culinary Institute of America. My panel on Innovation and Opportunity for Expanded Access to Protein Sources – with president of the Good Food Institute Bruce Friedrich and CEO of the Meat Institute Julie Anna Potts – starts at 2:30 p.m.

Jack Morton Auditorium at 805 21st Street NW Washington, D.C.

Get Tickets



Field Notes

While on Cape Cod earlier this month, I bought 20 pounds of cranberries from Annie’s Crannies in Dennis, Massachusetts, where farming these native and wild fruits was first invented. Lots more cranberry content incoming, but, first, here’s what I did with some leftover cranberry juice (made with a steam juicer that I’m now obsessed with). Behold, cranberry mignonette—served atop oysters from the family favorite Sunken Meadow Gems in Eastham.


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