The European Commission’s latest cereals market situation report projects a potential rise in grain production within the EU, reaching 284.2mt for the 2025/26 season. This is up from its previous estimate of 276.9mt and significantly higher than the previous year’s production of 255.2mt. A key contributor to the increase is the anticipated growth in soft wheat production, with estimates rising from 128.1mt to 132.6mt, marking an approximate increase of 19% year-on-year. In contrast, corn production forecasts were adjusted downwards to 56.8mt (-4.7% YoY) compared to prior estimates of 57.6mt.
Arabica coffee extended gains for a second consecutive session with prices rising more than 3% at one point yesterday, on the prospect of declining stockpiles at the exchange. The latest data shows that total coffee stocks at the US port warehouse monitored by the ICE exchange declined by 21.8k bags for a seventh straight session to 580k bags (the lowest since 25 March 2024) as of yesterday. Earlier, CONAB revised down its Brazil arabica coffee production estimates from 37m bags to 35.2m bags.
The latest data from the US weekly export sales shows that domestic corn shipments surged to 1,923.4kt for the week ending 18 September, higher than the 1,231.6kt a week ago and 535kt for the same period last year. This was also higher than the average market expectation of 1.383kt. Similarly, wheat shipments rose to 539.8kt, higher than the 387.5kt reported in the previous week and 169kt reported a year ago. The market expected these exports to be around 417kt. Meanwhile, US soybean shipments stood at 724.5kt, lower than the 925.2kt reported a week ago and 1,574.7kt a year ago. The market expected these exports to be around 950kt.
The latest numbers from the Institute for Agriculture Market Studies (IKAR) show that Russia’s wheat production could rise to 87.5mt for the 2025 harvest, higher than the previous estimate of 87mt. The rise in production estimates is primarily due to better supply prospects in the Urals and Western Siberia area. Meanwhile, the group also increased wheat export projections slightly by 0.1mt to 44.1mt for the 2025/26 season.