Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as AI optimism grows, while Dow stalls amid US shutdown

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US stock futures ticked up on Thursday, eyeing fresh record highs as investors welcomed an OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) boost to tech hopes and set aside a US government shutdown with no end in sight.

Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) led the cautious advance, up roughly 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) added 0.1%. Contracts on Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), which includes fewer tech stocks, wavered along the flat line.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) scored a fresh record on Wednesday, closing above 6,700 for the first time, as investors focused on a fall in ADP jobs numbers that cemented bets on interest-rate cuts this year.

Stocks stayed mostly upbeat on Thursday amid a wave of good news from the AI sector. An employee share sale boosted OpenAI’s (OPAI.PVT) valuation to $500 billion, vaulting it past SpaceX to become the most valuable startup in the world. Meanwhile, Korean chipmaker stocks surged after the ChatGPT owner extended its run of megadeals with pacts with the likes of SK Hynix (000660.KS, HXSCL).

The jobs numbers distracted markets from the government shutdown, which is set to drag on at least until the end of the week. On Wednesday, the Senate again rejected both Republican and Democratic bills to fund the government. The Senate will be out Thursday in observance of Yom Kippur, making Friday the next chance to hold a vote on funding.

With the shutdown set to extend to Friday, the release of the September jobs report is all but certain to be delayed given the Bureau of Labor Statistics was set to completely cease operations in the event of a stoppage. The timing of the delay is in high focus for Wall Street as Fed policymakers have indicated cracks in the labor market will loom large in their next interest rate decision, which is set for the end of this month.

LIVE 7 updates

  • OpenAI’s valuation soars to $500 billion, topping Musk’s SpaceX

    OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) has completed a deal to help employees sell shares in the company at a $500 billion valuation, propelling the ChatGPT owner past Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) to become the world’s largest startup.

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.

  • Premarket trending tickers: Equifax, Alibaba, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix

    Here’s a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:

    Equifax Inc. (EFX) stock slid 10% in premarket trading on Friday. Equifax Canada recently reported a sharp rise in credit card fraud, which analysts say could impact the company’s financial performance.

    Alibaba (BABA) stock rose 2% before the bell on Thursday after JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) raised its price target for the eCommerce giant.

    Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS) gained 3% and SK hynix Inc. (000660.KS) shares rose 9% on Thursday following a deal with OpenAI to support the ChatGPT maker’s expansive Stargate artificial intelligence data centre project.

  • Why Goldman is still bullish on gold

    No beating around the bush from Goldman Sachs this morning — it still loves gold as an investment.

    “Still our favorite long commodity,” Daan Struyven and other analysts said in a note. Gold (GC=F) prices are up 46% year to date.

    Here’s why Struyven still sees gold shining:

  • Interesting AM analyst calls

    It’s almost earnings season!

    And that means the start of interesting pre-earnings notes from the Street.

    A few that caught my attention pre-5am:

    Chipotle: Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo leaves an Outperform rating on Chipotle (CMG). But he all but hints the stock could get hit again on third quarter earnings. “With persisting macro pressures and a weakening labor market, we expect Chipotle’s same-store sales to miss 3Q25 expectations. Rather than by ‘Mexican food fatigue’, ‘excessive pricing’ or ‘rising competition’, we continue to believe that the relative demand weakness is driven by consumer confidence declining, greater exposure to more impacted demographics, and partially by the increased promotional environment that is compressing consumers’ willingness to pay $10+ for their lunch. We are also conscious that rising beef prices may impact restaurant level margins given Chipotle’s commitment not to take price near term,” says Gargiulo. My recent Opening Bid Unfiltered podcast with Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright for my insight into the company at this juncture.

    PepsiCo: No rest for the weary at PepsiCo (PEP) as it contends with new activist investor Elliott Management and a largely bearish Wall Street. RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi is keeping a Sector-Perform rating PepsiCo, but similar to Gargiulo on Chipotle sound quite bearish on PepsiCo into earnings. “We are expecting another difficult quarter for PepsiCo headlined by continued sluggish top line results in North America as snacking volumes continue to be a challenge, with muted PBNA [North America beverages] trends and pockets of international softness (Coca-Cola (KO) was talking down international beverage volumes in early September),” Modi said.

    Alibaba: Alibaba (BABA) is seeing interest today on the Yahoo Finance platform amid estimate raises from JP Morgan analyst Alex Yao. The stock is up 36% in the past month, and 117% on the year. Explains Yao: “Alibaba’s share price has outperformed the sector average, as measured by KWEB, by 364 percentage points in the past three months, due to better-than-expected cloud revenue growth rate in 2Q25 and management’s confident articulation of its investment strategy in food delivery and quick commerce, in our view. After attending Alibaba’s Apsara conference last week in Hangzhou, we are incrementally more positive on AliCloud for its future revenue generation opportunity with external clients (i.e. cloud revenue) and synergy with domestic ecommerce. We believe the positive development in both cloud and China domestic ecommerce warrants a higher valuation multiple as the narrative of Alibaba shifts towards ‘a tier-one asset in China Internet’ from ‘a domestic ecommerce market share loser.”

  • Rick Perry’s REIT Fermi jumps after $683M IPO

    Fermi’s (FRMI) shares rose 14% before the bell on Thursday after closing 54% up in their Nasdaq debut on Wednesday. The energy real estate investment trust (REIT), founded by former US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, raised raised $682.5 million in its US listing.

    Reuters reports:

    Read more here.

  • Global chipmakers add $200 billion in value as AI buzz fuels record rally

    Asia chip stocks soared on Thursday as investors rushed to get exposure to AI, the latest sign of a frenetic bull run that is pushing tech stocks to all-time highs.

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.

  • OpenAI closes share sale at record-breaking $500 billion valuation

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.