Stock market today: Nasdaq futures lead Dow, S&P 500 higher as TSMC's strong outlook buoys AI hopes

Shares of chip equipment makers rallied before the bell on the heels of a confidence boost from AI bellwether TSMC (TSM).

The Taiwanese contract chipmaker’s outlook and record Q4 profit lifted optimism that the AI-fueled Big Tech buildout will keep on stoking demand.

US-listed shares of ASML (ASML), a big supplier to TSMC, rose over 6% after the Dutch gear maker’s market value topped $500 billion for the first time in Amsterdam.

Lam Research (LRCX) surged almost 9%, while fellow US equipment provider Applied Materials (AMAT) rose around 8%.

Meanwhile, shares of TSMC customer Nvidia (NVDA) also moved up, but their advance was more muted at around 1%.

Bloomberg reports:

Stablecoins are a key pillar of the cryptoasset universe, and usage is booming after the US passed legislation governing them in July. After their success helping get Trump elected and the stablecoin bill passed, crypto executives now fear the impasse over tokens pegged to the dollar could prevent the US regulatory framework from catching up with other markets.

“This delay is concerning as it creates a probability for the US to be one of the only major digital assets hubs without a clear capital markets rulebook in 2026,” said Dea Markova, director of policy at Fireblocks, a crypto custody services provider.

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Bloomberg reports:

The sense of calm that has pervaded the US stock market for months is masking unprecedented bursts of volatility in individual shares, say Barclays Plc strategists.

Last year was a case in point, when some of the biggest components in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index saw abnormal swings as the gauge registered an AI-led, 16% rally. Between the 100 largest index members, there were 47 instances of sharp selloffs — specifically, a drop of five standard deviations or more, a move so rare it’s often considered an anomaly, according to Barclays. That’s the most in the bank’s data going back to 1998.

More of the same is probably ahead this year, Barclays says, in a call that underscores in part how dependent the benchmark gauge has become on the trajectory of shares related to the artificial-intelligence theme. But according to Barclays, it also shows how AI itself has sped up how traders process market-moving events.

“Single stocks have become where the center of gravity of volatility is,” Stefano Pascale, head of US equity derivatives research at Barclays, said in a phone interview. That environment has created a “lottery-ticket mentality” among retail traders, he said.

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ASML (ASML, ASML.AS) shares soared over 7% to a record high in Amsterdam, sending its market value beyond $500 billion, after its key customer TSMC gave a stronger-than-anticipated outlook for 2026.

Meanwhile, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker’s US-listed stock also popped after the Taiwanese contract chipmaking giant’s strong Q4 earnings, up over 4% in premarket.

Bloomberg reports:

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Shares of TSMC (TSM, 2330.TW) rose early Thursday after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker posted a forecast-smashing 35% jump in fourth quarter profit thanks to the AI boom.

The company also predicted robust growth in 2026 and said it plans to increase investment, hinting that more US factories are in the works.

Riding high on what it calls the “AI mega trend”, TSMC said its customers were “providing strong signals” ‌and reaching out directly to request capacity, per Reuters.

AP reported:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., a major supplier to companies including Nvidia and Apple, reported a net profit of 506 billion new Taiwan dollars ($16 billion) for the October-December quarter, a 35% surge from a year earlier, better than analysts’ estimates.

TSMC said Thursday that its revenue in the last quarter increased 21% from a year earlier to more than 1.046 trillion new Taiwan dollars ($33 billion).

TSMC said it plans to boost its capital expenditure budget to $52 billion-$56 billion for 2026, up from about $40 billion last year. The company’s shares have climbed more than 8% since the beginning of the year, reflecting its strong position in the AI-driven market.

… “We expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading edge process technologies,” Wendell Huang, TSMC’s chief financial officer, said in a conference call. He said spending would be “significantly higher” in the next three years.

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Reuters reports:

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Bloomberg reports:

Oil fell for the first time in six days after US President Donald Trump signaled he may hold off on attacking Iran for now.

Brent (BZ=F) dropped as much as 2.9% to trade below $65 a barrel after gaining about 11% over the past week while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $60. Trump said he’d been assured that Iran would stop killing protesters, reducing the likelihood of an immediate US military response to the demonstrations against the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and of disruptions to Iranian production and key shipping lanes.

Elsewhere, US government data showed nationwide crude stockpiles rose 3.4 million barrels last week — the largest build since early November. The rising inventories, more Venezuelan oil heading to the US, plus a disruption at a key terminal in the Black Sea has pushed WTI to near the deepest discount in 15 months relative to Brent.

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