00:00 Speaker A
Jared, let’s start with you on the close. We have a record for the S&P 500 closing above 6,400 for the first time ever.
00:05 Jared
Yes, we do. And we’ll start with the Dow though. No record for the Dow. Uh, let’s just take a look at that. Up 483 points or 1.11% right there. NASDAQ composite, we do have a record there. Up 1.38%, above 21,600. And the S&P 500 crossing, as you said, 6,400 for the first time. That is good for 72 points or 1.14%. We’ll also take a look at the small cap S&P 600 index. Look at that. 3.23%. That is the best return in at least three months. Might have to go back a little farther. I’ll check the books afterwards. Uh, but just kind of scrolling down here, we already took a look at the bond market, but I will give a final look at the 30 year 4.88% up for basis points after that CPI report. There was an initial dip down, which was interesting. But here’s a sector action in stocks. Communication services. That is a record high up 1.9%. We’re going to take a look at some of those components in the NASDAQ 100 just a little bit. Tech also a record high. 1.55%. From there we also have materials, XLB, and then XLF is financials. Both of those outperforming, but no records down the score, uh, for any of these other sectors, but even real estate up 17 basis points in the green today. And if we take a look at the scoreboard on the NASDAQ 100, we can see some outliers here. Meta up 3.15%, Broadcom up to almost 3%, we’ll call that. Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet each up more than 1%. And we’ll dive into the semiconductor industry where we see a lot of dark green here. Lamb Research and Micron and Qualcomm each up over 3%, Texas Instruments up 5%. And let’s check out software, which was lagging yesterday. Big stand out there is SAP. That’s down 4%. But for the most part, we’re looking at some green and dark green. Uh, pan Palo Alto Networks up 4%, CrowdStrike up 2%, and then Take-Two up 4%. I’m going to take a look at the Dow here. And we do see a little bit of red. IBM down another three quarters of a percent. It’s been trending down the last month. McDonald’s also taking a little bit of a dive for almost 1%. But for the most part, we have more green than red, and UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs each up more than 3%. I think that’s a record for Goldman Sachs. Let’s check out the year to date. I believe that is up almost 30% on the year for Goldman Sachs. And then finally, I will close on the transports, which had been lagging, but not today. And we see Delta Airlines up 9% in the upper right. Uh, Southwest Airport Airlines up over 5%. You, excuse me, United Airlines up over 10%. So really some outstanding results from the airlines today. And I’ll send it back to you on those.
04:04 Speaker A
All right, Jared. Thank you so much for that breakdown. And 70, you have a 6,200 price target for the S&P. We just have this new record. What’s contributing to your cautious stance?
04:16 70
So I started the year actually at 6,500. And then I moved it down when the tariffs happened, right to 6200.
04:22 Speaker A
Always go with your first gut.
04:28 70
I know. Well, I’ve, but I’ve maintained the 6,500 upside potential, um, because I just really wanted to see what happened with tariffs and what happened with its impact on growth and inflation. And I think we’re starting to see the better side of it, but we don’t know for sure. And I also am thinking that there could be some sort of like blip sometime in September, which is why I’ve been sort of keeping at the 6,200 mark, and, but really 60, I feel like I never left 6,500. It’s just that, you know, yeah.
05:03 Speaker A
That’s fair. Well, one reason that we’ve seen a lot more conviction in higher S&P targets across the boards. City, for example, yesterday, just hiked their price target to 6,600. Has been centered on earnings growth, and how not just the earnings that we’ve seen this past quarter, but really in the out quarters, end of the year, 2026. How are you looking at earnings and how does that help fuel some of the optimism?
05:37 70
Yeah. I, I was thinking, um, I felt that they were too high at the start of the year. Like 14% earnings growth, I think is what was expected at the start, and they’d moved down for the full 12 months down to 9%, and that felt more reasonable. Um, I still don’t think that all of everything we’re going to see from some of the things that have changed from a policy perspective have seen the light in the earnings numbers. And Q three and four are pretty robust in terms of expectations, whereas they weren’t for this past quarter. And so that’s the one thing I’m, I’m sort of like, when you look out, it’s double digits over the next 12 months. And I think it, you know, if you do see some sort of impact from the tariffs, it’s probably going to be a percent or so in the GDP kind of rule of thumb is 1% GDP hit is 4% earnings growth hit. So I think you could see some pullback in that. And that’s why I think September we’ll have this like come to, I don’t know what the right word is, but it sort of get to the right place. Um, and then I think you can kind of continue to go from there. And a lot of this I think comes back to CapEx spending.
07:10 Speaker A
So though, the blip that you’re potentially seeing in September,
07:16 70
Yeah.
07:17 Speaker A
How significant is that going to be, especially relative to where we were in April and the capacity for the index to climb back further?
07:26 70
Yeah, I think, um, a normal, you know, correction is somewhere in the eight to 10% mark. And I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw that. Um, but it’s not, I don’t think it’ll be there. Like it will, it’s, it’s very normal if you’re going to be invested in the US stock market, you kind of have to expect that every 12 months or so.