Macro update
Wall Street advances: US indices finished higher, led by the Nasdaq 100, as investors looked past government shutdown concerns; the Dow Jones gained 0.15%, the S&P 500 0.26%, and the Nasdaq 0.48%.
Tech momentum: Nvidia climbed 2% and Microsoft 0.6%, boosting the S&P 500 as optimism over AI growth and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut prospects supported sentiment.
Fed outlook divided: Cleveland Fed’s Hammack pressed for restrictive policy to contain inflation, while St. Louis Fed’s Musalem signalled readiness for additional cuts; markets now see an 89% chance of a 25bp cut at the next meeting.
Asia cautious: Regional equities edged up and gold set new records as traders awaited US shutdown developments, while oil slipped on expectations of higher OPEC+ supply.
S&P 500 forms a Doji
The S&P 500 resumed its bullish run but formed a day of indecision on Monday, a Doji.
Were it to be broken out of to the upside – above Monday’s 6,677 high – the September record peak at 6,699 would likely be back in view.
If, however, Monday’s low at 6,645 were to be slipped through, the April-to-September uptrend line at 6,604 may be revisited.