Via Metal Miner
The copper market outlook for the second half of 2025 has seen significant debate in recent weeks. On the supply side of the equation, new production is coming online. However, this may not happen fast enough to flood the market. According to mining.com, the ICSG projects global mined copper output will rise about 2.3% in 2025, topping 23.5 million metric tons as several major projects ramp up. Mines like Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia are boosting output, and a wave of smaller projects from Africa to Asia are adding tonnage.
Meanwhile, refined copper production (the copper form that actually hits markets) is expected to jump nearly 3% this year as smelters expand capacity, especially in China. At face value, this sounds bearish for prices, as more metal available should ease scarcity. The ICSG’s latest biannual forecast calls for a 289,000-ton surplus in 2025, more than double last year’s surplus. If that surplus materializes, it would mark the third straight year that supply outstrips demand, a clear recipe for price pressure.
Still, Not all Copper is “Created Equal”
Despite the above aggregate gains, physical copper supply continues to hit bottlenecks. Not all copper is created equal, and a lot of the new mine output is concentrate that still needs smelting. Concentrate shortages have already pushed treatment charges for smelters into negative territory, an unusual situation signaling that smelters are scrambling to secure raw material.
Among other factors, the halt on the giant mine at Cobre Panama last year exacerbated this tightness in concentrate. ICSG analysts note that while refined output is currently rising, the concentrate crunch could actually cause refined production to dip 1.5% by 2026, barring a surge in scrap recycling.
Is the U.S. Stockpiling Copper?
All of this adds up to a paradox in the current copper market outlook. In theory, there is plenty of copper, but not always in the right form or place. This is the primary reason why major traders remain bullish. As Trafigura and others have pointed out in recent years, decades of underinvestment mean few big mines are ready to catch up with future demand growth. And with trade policies effectively relocating chunks of the world’s copper inventory, local shortages can emerge even if global supply looks ample.
The ICSG itself acknowledges that new “demand drivers such as energy transition tech and data centers” will soak up a lot of copper, helping offset the manufacturing slowdown. For buyers, the takeaway is to watch supply dynamics at the regional level. According to Reuters, U.S. procurement heads should note that warehouse stocks in CME (U.S.) have ballooned to their highest since 2018, while Shanghai exchange inventories have slid to multi-year lows,
This reflects copper being sucked into the U.S. ahead of tariffs. If tariffs land and U.S. buying cools, we could see inventories flow back out. But if trade barriers persist, foreign markets might tighten. Such crosswinds mean global supply is not as straightforward as a single surplus number on paper.
Copper Market Outlook: Choppy Waters with Upside Glimmers
Bracing for the second half of 2025, most experts foresee continued price volatility rather than a one-directional trend. The consensus among veteran analysts is that copper will “tread a fine line” in the coming months, neither collapsing nor exploding, but instead remaining subject to quick swings on news.
Reuters’ latest commodities poll suggests prices will average in the mid-$9,000s per metric ton (around $4.50/lb) this year, slightly higher than 2024’s average. In practical terms, that would mean prices hovering in the $4.40–$4.50 per pound range through H2. This represents a manageable level for many manufacturers, albeit well below the earlier peaks.
Some See More of an Upside in Copper Market
However, there are scenarios where copper could break out to the upside. Deutsche Bank analysts note that if a global economic recovery (especially outside China) gains traction, it “could drive prices higher in H2 2025,” potentially putting $10,000+/ton back in play by 2026.
A resolution or relaxation in the U.S.–China trade tiff would be another bullish catalyst. Many experts argue that removing tariff fears could unleash pent-up demand and narrow the East-West price gap. On the flip side, a deepening trade war or recession would pose downside risk. For instance, Cochilco warned that if current weak economic conditions persist or worsen, their copper forecast would be further revised downward.
Agility Will Be Key Going Forward
From the vantage point of metal procurement executives, the prudent strategy in this environment is risk management and flexibility. Use the current price lulls to secure needed volumes, but stay agile with forward buys or hedging in case of sudden moves. “The market is moving into a structural deficit,” one bank noted, warning that any price dip that deters investment will now only “tighten the medium-term outlook.” In other words, excessively low prices aren’t sustainable without jeopardizing future supply.
By the Metal Miner team
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