The offseason is only just getting started, and NHL teams are already cooking on the trade market.
Trade season got underway before the Stanley Cup was handed out this June, when Chris Kreider was sent to Anaheim. Then, this week, Mason Marchment was flipped to Seattle, Andre Burakovsky to Chicago, Trevor Zegras to Philadelphia, Evander Kane to Vancouver and (on Wednesday night) JJ Peterka to Utah. That was just the start of what is expected to be a unique offseason. The action is likely to ramp up ahead of the draft and free agency.
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Instead of throwing darts at potential player destinations and playing matchmaker when another deal could drop at any second and recalibrate the trade market, we’re taking a different approach. Using Chris Johnston’s latest trade board as the jumping-off point, let’s break down the value of 10 of the most interesting names on the block, and what they bring to a lineup.
Rasmus Andersson, Calgary Flames
Position: Right defense
Contract: 1 year, 4.55 million
The top slot on the latest iteration of the trade board belongs to Rasmus Andersson in Calgary. A lot of that stems from his contract situation.
Andersson is a year away from unrestricted free agency, where right-handed defensemen tend to get paid. While the Flames have the space to pay him, it just may not make sense with the retooling team’s timeline.
Dom Luszczyszyn recently dove into aging curves and found that defensemen tend to peak between 25 and 27, which is a bit older than previously assumed. So while declines can still be sharp at age 32 and onwards for defensemen, there isn’t that same buyer beware sign on signing someone in their late 20s, either. Plus, a player’s Defensive Rating tends to age pretty well, which works in Andersson’s favor.
But it doesn’t mean he is worth a massive raise just yet, either. If he were a free agent this summer, Evolving-Hockey points to a six-year contract outside of Calgary with an $8.22 million cap hit.
A right-handed defenseman who can play matchup minutes, be deployed in any situation, and bring some bite to a lineup will get that on the open market. Still, that kind of money, even in a growing cap world, may be above what he brings to a lineup.
There is a good chance that Andersson can kick his game up a notch outside of Calgary. He has been tasked with playing challenging minutes without a ton of offensive or defensive support around him. So, while it’s a red flag that the team has been worse in terms of expected goals against in his minutes, the context of the situation is worth keeping in mind. On a deeper team, he likely would have a stronger support system and maybe a more fitting role as a number two or three on the back end. A team that trades for him this summer could get the chance to figure that out before committing to his next contract.
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Bowen Byram, Buffalo Sabres
Position: Left defense
Contract: RFA
After 100 games in Buffalo, the question remains whether Bowen Byram can be the driver of his own pair, considering some of his struggles away from Rasmus Dahlin. Some of his partners were closer to replacement level, compared to Dahlin, an elite two-way defenseman. And it’s easy to see why the two click so well together. Byram generally doesn’t make a ton of puck touches in his own zone, so having a puck retriever such as Dahlin helps tee him up to exit with control and rush up the ice to generate offense.
A 24-year-old with high-end puck-moving ability has value in this league — but does it make enough sense for the Sabres, with so much already invested in the left side of the blue line?
Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild
Position: Center
Contract: RFA
The free-agent center market was shallow heading into the offseason. It’s even more slim pickings now that Matt Duchene, Trent Frederic, Brock Nelson and Jonathan Toews are all off the board. Plus, Sam Bennett seems unlikely to leave Florida.
That has two ripple effects: it makes Marco Rossi an even more interesting player on the trade board, and it means the Wild will likely have an even tougher time replacing him. Minnesota’s center depth ranks 17th in the league, according to Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille; without Rossi, it would drop down to 25th.
So why would Minnesota consider trading Rossi? His next contract.
Two key issues could hold a signing team back from committing, say, six years at $6.5 million, as Evolving-Hockey projects.
Issue number one: his size, at just 5-foot-9. Small players can have very successful careers — in Minnesota, look no further than Mats Zucarello. But those players aren’t always trusted in playoff environments, and Rossi certainly wasn’t this spring. Issue number two revolves around whether Rossi can drive his own line or is just a passenger to Kirill Kaprizov.
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While most teams want centers to be the drivers of their own lines, there can be exceptions when playing alongside a game-breaking winger. And these two do mesh well together. In 407 five-on-five minutes together this year, the Wild earned a 57 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-16. Rossi was still above break-even in expected and actual goals without Kaprizov, but wasn’t as in control.
Rossi may not become the most dominant top-six center around. Still, there are some promising signs when looking at his top comparables at 24 years old, from Tyler Johnson and Teuvo Teravainen, to Mikael Granlund, Bryan Little and David Krejci. That’s a fine career path to follow, whether it continues in Minnesota or elsewhere. The worry is that his game never materializes up to those expectations.
K’Andre Miller, New York Rangers
Position: Left defense
Contract: RFA
K’Andre Miller has all the tools to be a two-way threat on the back end. His skating ability, foot speed, long stride and reach can disrupt opponents and help the Rangers generate offense.
That skill set can be worth investing in if a team can channel the best of his ability and help him find some consistency. That hasn’t been the case in New York, where elements of his game, like his zone entry denial and rush defense, took a hit due to poor positioning and decision-making. And that proved costly in matchup minutes against the opponents’ best.
Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars
Position: Left wing
Contract: 1 year, $7.75 million
Jason Robertson ramped up his game after getting snubbed by Team USA at 4 Nations. From Dec. 4 on, he scored 30 goals and 66 points in 58 games, and earned a 49-37 five-on-five goal advantage in his minutes. His skating isn’t perfect, but this year still highlighted a lot of his strengths — his ability to drive to the quality areas, to convert on his chances (with another 35-plus goal season), and be a plus back in his own zone.
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The big criticism is that his regular-season play doesn’t always translate in the playoffs, and that likely factors into the Stars’ decision-making after three straight Western Conference final failures. But he’s still the kind of goal scorer most teams crave, and the 25-year-old upped his game when his team needed it most against Edmonton in Round 3.
Bryan Rust, Pittsburgh Penguins
Position: Right wing
Contract: 3 years, $5.13 million
The big difference between Bryan Rust and pending free agents is the cost-controlled element. While he projects to be worth an average market value of $7.92 million over the next three years, he only carries a $5.13 million cap hit. If he were to be a free agent this summer, Evolving-Hockey points to a three-year $6.77 million projection.
The wild card is how Rust will play away from Sidney Crosby and the Penguins, and how his game will hold up in his mid-30s. The Crosby factor is real because Rust tends to spend upwards of 70 percent of his five-on-five minutes on his wing. In 2022-23, when that shared ice dropped below 50 percent, Rust had one of his slowest scoring seasons in the last six years. But there is something other teams can learn from that. Just because he isn’t meant to be the driver of his line doesn’t necessarily make him a replaceable passenger. There’s something to being a high-end supporting talent who can legitimately keep up and complement the league’s best. That’s why players such as Zach Hyman have so much value, because he has helped Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid be the best versions of themselves. So teams with star players that need to bulk up their supporting cast, like the Devils, should be kicking the tires on Rust.
At his best, Rust can be a valuable player in all three zones. He put up a career-high 65 points in a tough season in Pittsburgh. And over the years, the Penguins have generally been a better team offensively in his minutes. Rust can retrieve pucks, help exit the zone with control and push play into the offensive zone. To maximize his scoring chance creation, he pairs best with a dangerous passer. That skill translates in all situations, but there is one other downside to keep an eye on: his defensive play, which took a hit this year. Interested teams just have to study whether this is the start of a downward trend or a consequence of the team around him.
Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins
Position: Right defense
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Contract: 2 years, $10 million
At 35 years old, Erik Karlsson isn’t at the height of his game anymore. He isn’t a $10 million defenseman. And playing in Pittsburgh really hasn’t done him any favors, either. But in the right situation, the potential is still there. A team just has to understand Karlsson’s strengths and weaknesses, and how to balance that risk-versus-reward.
At his core, Karlsson is still an elite offensive defenseman. When he’s firing on all cylinders, teams can count on him to retrieve pucks and lead the breakout and quarterback plays in the offensive zone. All of that helps add up to a projected Offensive Rating of plus-10.2.
A team just has to be ready for two things with Karlsson: aging impacts and defensive errors. Elite talent tends to age a lot more gracefully than the average player, because they have a lot more room to fall. There just isn’t a perfect blueprint to follow with someone of Karlsson’s caliber. And it’s tough to tell whether the cracks forming in his game were due to aging or his surroundings.
The Penguins still scored more at five-on-five in Karlsson’s minutes, relative to his teammates, but he wasn’t as strong of a plus below the surface relative to his usual heights. Plus, there were steps back in his tracking data, collected by All Three Zones. Karlsson still exited the zone at a high rate, but there were more botched retrievals and failed plays in transition along the way. A player has to have the puck to lose it, but those losses can be glaring when someone already has other defensive flaws, like their zone entry defense.
In the right system, with the right support on his left, there is a way to shield some of Karlsson’s shortcomings and maximize his strengths, which few available defenders can bring to a lineup. And if a team can get Pittsburgh to retain some of his $10 million cap hit (the Sharks already retained $1.5 million of it), an acquiring team could be in even better shape. A team with deep pockets could make a move before July 1 to take his $5 million signing bonus off the Penguins’ plate and push for more retention. A team like the Hurricanes with a ton of space could push for the opposite — let Pittsburgh handle the initial cost, but take on a greater chunk of his cap hit.
Matias Maccelli, Utah Mammoth
Position: Left wing
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Contract: 1 year, $3.43 million
Maccelli has fallen out of favor in Utah. His usage dwindled over the past year, from an average of 16:14 in ice time to 13:44. And he was a healthy scratch for stretches this season.
The 24-year-old is a pass-first player, sometimes to a fault. Still, his rate of primary passes, 10.6 per 60 according to AllThreeZones tracking at five-on-five, ranked well in Utah and league-wide. Maccelli also moved the puck into the offensive zone with control at a high rate in limited ice time, but didn’t turn those plays into scoring chances consistently enough.
An acquiring team would have to hope that a change of scenery, and maybe more opportunity, would help him kick his game up a notch. Maccelli’s most frequent linemates were Lawson Crouse and Nick Bjugstad at five-on-five over the last couple of seasons, so he didn’t necessarily have the proper shooting presence to complement his game. But there could be concern that there isn’t a ton of substance behind his game that would help him become more of a difference-maker. His top comps aren’t super encouraging, either — from Sven Andrighetto and Dominik Kahun, to Colin White and Joonas Donskoi. It’s a pretty steep drop-off from his comps at 23 years old, which included names such as Kris Versteeg, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Mikael Granlund.
Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks
Position: Goaltender
Contract: 1 year, $5 million
For a time, it seemed like Thatcher Demko could be a franchise cornerstone in Vancouver, with Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson. Just look at his 2023-24 season, when he bounced back from a less-than-stellar 2022-23. Demko earned a .918 save percentage and put up 32 quality starts that added up to 25.8 goals saved above expected, which ranked fourth in the league.
But the Canucks can’t always count on those great seasons which adds another level of uncertainty to the range of outcomes for an already volatile position. With all the ups, there have been some downs and inconsistencies. And then there’s the durability factor, which has held his game back throughout his career. Injuries derailed his 2023-24 season and limited him to just one postseason game. Those injuries also suppressed his game this season. Demko was rusty after starting the year late, and just when he started to get back on track, he was injured again in February. That allowed Kevin Lankinen to take over the starter’s net and earn a five-year extension, worth $4.5 million a year on average, with a full no-movement clause in the first two years, which sparked questions about Demko’s role in Vancouver.
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It all depends on whether or not he can be counted on, even in a 1B position. It’s tricky to project, given the injuries over the years, which may only get worse as he ages. So the Canucks could prefer to let Arturs Silovs can takeover behind Lankinen, after winning MVP honors in the Calder Cup Final this week — if another team is willing to bet on Demko.
Noah Dobson, New York Islanders
Position: Right defense
Contract: RFA
At number 19 on the trade board, Noah Dobson may be one of the most intriguing names on the list. The best way to add a top-pair, right-handed defenseman is through the draft. And even after landing a player with that upside, a team still has to develop the player to reach their ceiling.
The Islanders got a glimpse of what a game-breaker Dobson could be from the blue line in 2023-24. He scored 70 points in 79 games, which ranked seventh among defensemen, despite the team having a relatively mediocre power play. And the substance was there below the surface to back it up, with the Islanders creating more quality offense (and converting on it) in his minutes.
The defensive side of his game just hasn’t always been perfect. Although, unlike 2023-24, the Islanders allowed fewer expected and actual goals against relative to his teammates. Luckily, the Islanders have support around him to balance that out, between Alexander Romanov, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, so the workload can be split accordingly to maximize everyone’s strengths. Maybe having new assistant coaches will help Dobson grow more, too.
That’s if he and the Islanders can come to a contract agreement this summer. A player of Dobson’s caliber can command a lot, especially in this new-look cap world. He is projected to have a $11.8 million market value, on average, over the next eight years, which represents the highest end deal he can swing for. Evolving-Hockey’s projection for an eight-year extension on Long Island carries a $10.1 million AAV.
It’s a steep price to pay for someone who isn’t a Norris Trophy perennial just yet, but he has the ceiling to become that. Some of his top comps show that path is there for someone of his caliber, in his age range — from Seth Jones and Drew Doughty, to Duncan Keith, Ryan Suter and Ryan McDonagh. But if he goes the way of Kevin Shattenkirk, as more of a one-dimensional top-four defender, or even Thomas Chabot, who isn’t a true number one, a contract of that magnitude could quickly become a mistake.
Still, franchise defensemen don’t grow on trees, so if Dobson truly becomes available, there should be interest around the league.
— Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Natural Stat Trick, and CapWages. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Noah Dobson: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)