New Analysis Finds Trump Tariffs Could Worsen Ag Consolidation

A new analysis released today by the consumer advocacy group Food & Water Watch outlines the impacts of President Trump’s first term trade war on agricultural sector consolidation; and offers a warning for Trump’s latest tariff announcements. Impacts from a new trade war could be even more severe, as major commodities purchasers like China are more prepared to shift away from U.S. exports this time around.

Over decades, domestic farm policy has left U.S. producers vulnerable to trade wars. In the wake of Trump’s first term trade war, Food & Water Watch analysis found that:

• Farm bankruptcies rose 24% from 2018 to 2019.
• The number of farms harvesting soybeans decreased overall by 10.7% while the number of soybean farms with 1,000 acres or more increased by 5% from 2017 to 2022.
• The total number of farms fell 7% between 2017 to 2022, hitting small farms and Black producers hardest.
• Bailout funds flowed to the largest operations and multinational corporations.

Food & Water Watch Senior Researcher Ben Murray issued the following statement:

“Chaotic tariff tantrums are no way to run U.S. farm policy. President Trump’s first term trade war hurt independent farmers and benefited corporations, offering a warning of what is to come without a plan to help farmers adjust. Trump’s latest slap-dash tariff announcements will likely further undermine U.S. farmers while benefiting multinational corporations who can easily shift production abroad to avoid high tariffs.

“Farmers’ livelihoods should not be used as a foreign policy bargaining chip. Instead, U.S. farmers need fair prices, regional food markets, and policies that reward sustainable, humane production models. Trump’s tariff tantrum addresses none of these.”

For more Food & Water Watch research on the Economic Cost of Food Monopolies, see recent reports on the retail grocery, pork, dairy, and egg industries.