MLB trade deadline Big Board 2.0: Top 40 players on market as July 31 approaches

Value: Late bloomer in the rotation

Analysis: Lugo had a breakout season in 2024, pitching more than 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. Now 35, his surface-level numbers are almost identical this year. The pitch and batted ball data suggest he’s not been as good as a year ago, but Lugo has remained plenty effective. He has a player option for 2026 he’s unlikely to exercise barring injury, meaning the right-hander should be considered a rental.

Value: Cy Young winner searching for form

Analysis:Which version of Alcantara is actually on the market? The 2022 Cy Young winner excelled then by keeping the ball in the park and on the ground. But he took a step back in 2023, went under the knife for Tommy John surgery and has returned this year without the command that makes his mix work. He ditched his slider earlier this year and started to look like the Sandy of old – right up until he allowed 12 runs in 12 innings the last two times out.

Since June 1, the walk rate is one-third of what it was before then, and so there’s reason to believe Alcantara’s worst is behind him. He isn’t a pitcher who strikes out the lineup, but he is a potential playoff starter, and the supply of those is very limited this deadline.

Value: Proven starter having down season

Analysis:Gallen’s inconsistent season has mirrored Arizona’s on the whole. Each time he looks like his old self, he follows it up with a string of pedestrian outings. The stuff has really regressed, and the peripheral numbers support an ERA that starts with a five. So an acquiring team here is really betting on the track record of a 29-year-old who, until this season, had always been good. Gallen is a free agent at the end of the season.

Value: Solid mid-rotation starter

Analysis: On a staff that’s lost Corbin Burnes and can’t find the proper versions of Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez, it’s Kelly that’s been the standout. He’s been better than Gallen in just about every way, so his ranking behind him owes mostly to the track record before 2025. Even then, it’s not like Kelly’s come from nowhere. His ERA is 3.47 since the start of 2022.

Value: Rising star fulfilling potential

Analysis: Nobody on this list is pitching better right now than Cabrera, whose ERA is under two since the final week of May. There’s good reason to believe this is a real transformation: Cabrera dropped his arm slot, added a sinker, and moved to the curve over the slider. He’s not walking nearly as many hitters as he used to. All this makes it both harder to trade the right-hander, who’s under team control through 2028, and more tantalizing to do so for a higher-quality return.

Value: Dependable starter signed through 2028

Analysis: Drafted in 2014 and signed to an extension 10 years later, Keller is a homegrown Pirates starter who made an All-Star team in 2023 and has finished with an ERA between 3.90 and 4.25 in each of the past four seasons. He’s not an ace, but he’s a dependable arm with team control through his early 30s (his extension goes through 2028). The Pirates have enough young pitching to consider moving one of their more established starters, and Keller has a blend of consistency and contractual control that teams covet.

Value: Versatile veteran arm

Analysis: Martinez won’t wow you with stuff – his vulcan changeup is the only pitch that’s above average in that regard – but he throws six pitches with good command of each. Despite his poor strikeout rate, he’s been able to limit the walk rate and keep hitters guessing enough that they don’t do lots of damage when they connect.

While this year hasn’t gone as well as the end of last season did for Martinez, he returned from a brief stint in the bullpen by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last start of June. He owns a lot of experience as a starter and as a reliever in the same season, and his versatility makes him a great pickup for a team that just needs an arm to help it get to October.

Value: Low-walk, low-strikeout starting pitcher

Analysis: In a 12-year professional career, Littell has been traded twice, sold once, and claimed off waivers. He’s also been a free agent two times. But if he changes teams again at the deadline, it will finally be a transaction you actually notice. That’s because Littell has emerged from obscurity to become yet another productive Rays starter. He’s given up a lot of home runs this year, and doesn’t strike out many batters, but doesn’t walk many either, and he’s consistently minimized damage through two-plus seasons in the Rays rotation.

The Rays are very much in the playoff hunt, but they also have some Triple-A rotation depth in Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, and ace Shane McClanahan could return from the IL sometime after the deadline. The team’s roster-churning style could lead them to deal Littell before he becomes a free agent at season’s end.

Value: Veteran mid-rotation starter

Analysis: The Orioles have probably dug too far a hole and have too much long-term work to do on their pitching staff for the organization to hold expiring deals for a slim playoff chance at the deadline. With Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton all finishing their deals at the end of the season, it behooves Baltimore to get whatever prospect arms it can, preferably on the higher-upside, lower-floor spectrum of things. Unfortunately for Eflin, a brutal three-start stretch at the end of June led into an IL stint for back discomfort, which is why his ranking here dropped as precipitously as it did.

Value: Oft-injured veteran starter

Analysis: An impending free agent two seasons removed from his second Tommy John surgery, Paddack shows flashes of front-line upside but hasn’t posted an ERA better than league average or surpassed 110 innings since 2019. He’s not part of the Twins’ future plans and can fill out the back of a contender’s rotation.

Value: Veteran starter returning to form

Analysis: As of early June, Giolito’s 6.42 ERA suggested few teams would be interested in a somewhat costly starting pitcher who hadn’t been especially good since 2021. But Giolito has turned things around in the past month. Seemingly gaining strength and consistency in his first year back from 2024 elbow surgery, Giolito has been excellent for the past month, cutting his ERA below 4.00 and consistently giving the Red Sox six-plus innings.

He now looks more like an innings eater with some upside, pitching more like the guy who received Cy Young votes three straight seasons from 2019 to 2021. His fastball velocity is back up to 94 mph, and he’s mixing that pitch with an even assortment of sliders and changeups. Giolito’s been regaining value lately.

Value: Versatile arm seeking consistency

Analysis: Soroka was an under-the-radar target for a lot of teams last winter, thanks to the outstanding second half he’d put together as a reliever for the White Sox. Moved back to the rotation in Washington, he’s dealt with another injury (a biceps strain this time) and some inconsistency.

Despite a pedestrian ERA, Soroka still excels at a lot of things teams really value today: He owns good strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rates, and he keeps the ball off the barrel. Plus, his experience last season makes Soroka a flexible fit: He can fill out your rotation in the short term and then slide to the bullpen later in the year.

Value: Veteran with recent postseason success

Analysis: After so much inconsistency early in his career, Heaney has settled into a niche these past three seasons as a reliable No. 4 starter with an ERA just over four. This is a guy who started three postseason games for the champion Rangers in 2023, and he looked like a free-agent steal for Pittsburgh until a couple of rough outings in late June ballooned his ERA. On the other hand, the strikeout rate has dipped quite a bit to below league-average, and the walk rate is up. He could make a playoff start for you, but you probably wouldn’t feel super comfortable about it.

Value: Back-end rotation stability

Analysis: A once touted prospect who quietly became a two-time All-Star in his 30s, Anderson is a dependable back-end starter for a contender in need of rotation stability. He has roughly league-average numbers (100 ERA+), but he’s also tied for the second-most starts in the Majors, and he’s allowed more than four runs only three times.

Anderson is rarely dominant but typically steady, which has value as teams worry about workload and depth down the stretch. His contract expires at the end of the year, which surely increases the motivation for the Angels — who are vaguely in contention — to consider moving him.