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Is Casey's Stock A Buy Ahead Of Its Q1 Earnings?

Posted By: keaton
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Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY), a gas station and convenience store chain, is scheduled to disclose its fiscal first-quarter earnings (April year) on Monday, September 8, 2025. Analysts project EPS of $5.06 on $4.48 billion in revenue, indicating a 4% year-over-year growth in earnings and a 9% increase in sales compared to last year’s $4.86 per share on $4.10 billion in revenue. Historically, CASY stock has decreased 60% of the time after earnings, with a median one-day drop of 2.7% and a maximum decline of 7%.

For the full year 2025, Casey’s reported EPS of $14.64 and EBITDA of $1.2 billion, along with a record expansion of 270 stores. The company hiked its dividend by 14% to $0.57 per share. It offered FY2026 guidance of 10%–12% EBITDA growth, 2%–5% same-store inside sales growth, and stable fuel gallons sold, emphasizing strong financial results and continuous strategic expansion.

The company has a current market capitalization of $18 billion. Revenue over the last twelve months was $16 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $796 million in operating profits and net income of $547 million. While much will depend on how the results compare with consensus and expectations, grasping historical trends might tilt the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader. Additionally, see Buy Meta over Amazon?

For event-driven traders, historical patterns can provide an advantage, whether by taking positions before earnings or responding to post-release movements. If you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, consider the Trefis High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

Casey’s General Stores Historical Probability Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

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  • Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points recorded, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 40% of the time.
  • This percentage notably increases to 58% when analyzing data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • The median of the 8 positive returns is 7.6%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -2.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized, along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and make the appropriate trade. For instance, if the 1D and 5D returns show the highest correlation, a trader might opt for a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

At times, the performance of peers can impact the stock reaction following earnings. In fact, the pricing might commence prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of Casey’s General Stores stock with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Casey’s General Stores. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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