Goldman slashes S&P 500 target for second time on growth risk

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists cut their S&P 500 target for a second time this month, citing a higher recession risk and tariff-related uncertainty.

The team led by David Kostin now expects the benchmark to end the year around 5,700 points versus their previous estimate of 6,200. The new target implies gains of just 2% from the S&P 500’s Friday close, and is among the lowest on Wall Street, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Slowing growth and rising uncertainty warrant a higher equity risk premium and lower valuation multiples for equities,” Kostin wrote in a note. “If the growth outlook and investor confidence deteriorate even further, valuations could decline much more than we forecast.”

Kostin had first reduced his target from 6,500 on March 11, partly to account for declines in the technology heavyweights this year.

US stocks have slumped on worries about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s trade war. Trump said he plans to start his reciprocal tariff push with “all countries,” tamping down speculation that he could limit the initial scope of levies set to be unveiled April 2.

Separately, Goldman Sachs economists also increased their tariff assumptions for a second time in less than a month, with the average US levy now seen rising 15 percentage points in 2025. They also lowered their 2025 US gross domestic product growth forecast by half a percentage point to 1% on a fourth quarter versus year earlier basis.