Macro update
Fed chair speculation rattles markets
Global equities fell and bond yields rose after Donald Trump said he has selected his preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, with reports pointing to former Fed governor Kevin Warsh.
Policy outlook repriced
Prediction markets now assign a 92% probability to Warsh’s nomination, with attention on his preference for lower interest rates alongside a smaller Fed balance sheet.
Risk‑off move across Asia
MSCI Asia‑Pacific ex‑Japan slid as much as 1.3% – their steepest one-day drop in a month – led by losses in China and Hong Kong, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell around 0.5%.
Dollar and yields rebound
The United States (US) dollar index gained 0.3% as investors pared back bearish positions, while the US 10‑year Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points (bp) to 4.27%.
Metals and crypto retreat
Gold dropped 3.7% and silver slid 6% after a volatile session, while Bitcoin fell 2.7% as risk appetite weakened.
Oil eases but caps strong month
Brent crude oil slipped 1.4% from its overnight high but remains up nearly 15% for January – its strongest monthly gain in years – supported by Middle East tensions and supply disruptions.
Dow Jones remains below record high
The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to trade below its January record high at 49,616 – 49,633, but above last week’s 48,428 low. While it holds, the medium‑term uptrend remains intact, with the psychological 50,000 region still in sight.
A fall through 48,428 may push the 47,853 – 47,850 lows from mid‑December to early January into focus.
- Short‑term outlook: bullish while above 48,428
- Medium‑term outlook: bullish while above the 2 January low at 47,853, targeting 50,000.