Base metals are set to dominate the commodity market in 2026, with copper emerging as the clear leader, according to Jay Prakash Gupta, Founder of Dhan. This call is important because it points to a structural shift in demand, rather than a short-term trade, with copper benefiting from new-age consumption linked to electric vehicles (EVs) and energy transition themes. Gupta believes this demand will outpace supply, creating a mismatch that could keep prices elevated and make copper the standout commodity trade of the year.
“This is going to be a year for base metals, especially copper, for 2026,” Gupta said, adding that he would “not be surprised if it touches” the $13,000–$14,000 per tonne range. He also stated that for Indian investors, currency movements will matter, with the rupee’s performance—shaped by the Union Budget and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows—playing a key role in how global copper prices translate domestically.
Beyond copper, Gupta remains constructive on the broader commodities space following a volatile but strong 2025. He said the overall outlook for 2026 remains positive, though leadership within commodities is likely to be more selective rather than broad-based.
Silver, in particular, looks attractive in the first half of 2026, driven by persistent uncertainty in global markets. Gupta highlighted several factors that could influence silver prices, including the US mid-term elections, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman, ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US, and the outlook for industrial demand amid supply-side constraints. For 2026, he sees silver trading in a wide range of $62 to $84 per ounce, with an upside target of $83–$84. At the same time, he cautioned that while there is “a lot of silver lining left in silver,” the market should not expect a repeat of the sharp rally seen in 2025.
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On gold, Gupta expects the metal’s strength to carry into 2026, with a likely target of $5,200 per ounce. He anticipates heightened volatility in the first six months of the year, albeit with an upward bias, largely driven by familiar geopolitical risks. While he suggested silver could outperform gold on a relative basis, he maintained that gold’s role as a store of value remains intact. He also indicated that his views could be revisited around mid-2026 as market conditions evolve.
Gupta also expects the strength in copper to spill over into other base metals. Zinc, trading near multi-year highs, and aluminium, close to one-year highs, could benefit from the same underlying cycle. He ranked the potential performance with copper leading, followed by zinc and then aluminium. However, he urged caution on making aggressive calls at this stage, saying it is “too early to take a call now” on specific targets for zinc and aluminium, and advising investors to wait for international markets to reopen and liquidity to normalise before taking firm positions.
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For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video