BEIJING – For the first time since at least the 1990s, China has not bought any US soybeans at the start of the export season, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington.
As the world’s top soybean buyer, China wields enormous influence over global markets. Now it is reviving a familiar tactic of holding back on US purchases – deployed during the first trade war under US President Donald Trump – as the two countries navigate a fragile truce.
US Department of Agriculture data shows China had not booked a single cargo as at Sept 11, almost two weeks into the new marketing season – the first time in records going back to 1999.
In 2024, the US made up a fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than US$12 billion (S$15.4 billion), accounting for over half of total US soy export value.
Beijing, with healthy stockpiles in hand, is signalling it has the patience and capacity to wait – and that it is willing to use commodities as a bargaining chip in broader trade talks.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to speak to Mr Trump on Sept 19, as the two countries spar over restrictions on semiconductors and rare earths.
In the run-up, China has ratcheted up pressure by announcing that a preliminary probe found Nvidia in violation of anti-monopoly laws.
“China’s approach on soybeans is similar to its approach on rare earths, in that it reflects years of careful game-planning since the last trade war,” said Ms Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at Trivium China, a policy consultancy in Beijing.
“Buyers are responding not just to the high tariffs that remain on US beans, but also to the extremely high degree of uncertainty regarding the short-term outlook for those tariffs, and the very clear political signals that Beijing does not want purchasing to happen without officials giving the go-ahead,” she said.
That strategy appears to be paying off. US farmers, flush with bumper harvests, are coping with prices near the lowest levels in years.
The soy growers, who constitute a key voting bloc for Trump, have warned of a “trade and financial precipice”, urging the administration to cut a deal with China that removes tariffs. US soybeans going into China currently face duties of more than 20 per cent.
Across the Pacific, the mood is calmer.
Chinese crushers, pig farmers and feed producers, bruised by the first trade war, have secured months of supply from Brazil. Some have doubled their inventories, while the state’s vast reserves provide an additional buffer.
Soybeans are primarily crushed in China to produce soymeal for its massive pig feed industry and soyoil for cooking.
Chinese importers have bought enough cargoes to cover their needs for the rest of 2025, according to people familiar with the matter. That pushes any urgency to scoop up US supplies to at least the first quarter of 2026, they said.
The strategy extends beyond soy. China has also curtailed purchases of US corn, wheat and sorghum for the new season, even as it continues to source these grains from Brazil, Canada and Australia.
While overall grain imports are down as the economy slows, the move also fits Beijing’s bigger push to reduce reliance on the US and diversify where it gets its supplies.
If not for the tariffs, the US remains one of the most efficient, low-cost suppliers of soybeans, and China is paying a premium to go without them, according to Trivium’s Ms Pay. The longer it holds out, the higher that cost and the greater the pain of skipping American supplies.
In the first trade war, even as China slapped retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, it granted some exemptions and allowed businesses to bring in limited amounts of farm goods.
“If a deal is struck, there will definitely be some level of demand for US soybeans from Chinese buyers,” Ms Pay said. “The issue is the trade war – not a total lack of demand.” BLOOMBERG