CHONGQING, CHINA – JULY 30: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), an American big data analytics and software company, in front of a screen showing the company’s latest stock market chart on July 30, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) is scheduled to announce its Q2 FY’25 earnings on Monday, August 4. Consensus forecasts indicate earnings of $0.14 per share, an increase from $0.09 a year earlier, with revenues projected to grow 38% year-over-year to $939 million. The growth is driven by strong demand for Palantir’s AI and big data platforms, especially in the U.S. In Q1, U.S. commercial revenue jumped 71%, while government revenue grew 45% to reach $373 million. Profitability has also remained strong, with adjusted operating margins at 44% for the last quarter.
Palantir currently has a market capitalization of $373 billion, with trailing 12-month revenues of $3.1 billion, operating income of $406 million, and net income of $571 million. Nevertheless, the stock is trading at high valuation multiples – its forward P/E is approximately 270x – making it particularly sensitive to earnings surprises and future guidance. So, what is the likely response of the stock to the earnings announcement? While much will hinge on how the results compare to consensus and expectations, analyzing historical patterns could tip the odds in your favor if you are trading based on events.
There are two approaches to achieve this: understand the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings release, or assess the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings and position yourself accordingly once the earnings are announced. That said, if you’re looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio provides an alternative – outperforming the S&P 500 and yielding returns greater than 91% since its launch.
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Palantir Technologies’ Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the past five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage rises to 58% if we analyze data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 21%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -13%
Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
PLTR 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky method (although not beneficial if the correlation is low) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader could take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
PLTR Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a smoother experience compared to an individual stock like Palantir Technologies, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P, and achieved greater than 91% returns since its inception.