The crypto derivatives market is gearing up for one of the most significant expiries of the quarter, as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options worth nearly $16.98 billion are set to expire on Deribit on October 29, 2025. The event, driven by institutional traders and large option writers, is expected to bring short-term volatility and potential price realignments for both major cryptocurrencies.
Understanding the Deribit Options Expiry
Deribit, the world’s leading crypto options exchange, regularly hosts large-scale expiries that influence market sentiment and price movements across Bitcoin and Ethereum. These expiries represent the settlement of derivative contracts tied to BTC and ETH, which traders use to hedge positions or speculate on future price direction.
This particular expiry involves 127,000 BTC options and ETH options worth $2.56 billion, collectively valued at $16.98 billion in notional terms. Such a large notional value underscores the growing institutional activity in the crypto derivatives market, as traditional finance participants continue to integrate digital assets into their broader investment strategies.
According to data from Deribit, the put/call ratios for both BTC and ETH are almost balanced, indicating that traders are equally distributed between bullish and bearish positions. A balanced ratio typically suggests that the market is not leaning heavily toward a single direction — a sign of caution rather than panic.
Max Pain Levels: $114,000 for BTC and $4,100 for ETH
The concept of “max pain” — the price point where the majority of options holders lose the most money — plays a crucial role in understanding potential price behavior during expiry events. For this round, Bitcoin’s max pain level is identified at $114,000, while Ethereum’s stands near $4,100.
Historically, prices of assets tend to gravitate toward these max pain levels as expiries approach, a phenomenon known as “options pinning.” This occurs because both buyers and sellers adjust their positions to minimize losses, creating strong magnetic price zones.
As of early trading hours on October 29, Bitcoin is trading at $112,930, about 1% below its max pain point, while Ethereum hovers near $4,080. Analysts believe this proximity could lead to short-term stabilization around these levels, followed by volatility once the contracts officially settle.
Institutional Traders Dominate the Event
Institutional traders are the main drivers behind this expiry event. These participants typically use options contracts for sophisticated hedging strategies rather than direct speculation. By balancing long and short exposures, they can protect their portfolios from sudden price swings while still participating in upside potential.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers confirmed that institutional hedging activity has been strong in recent weeks, stating that the put/call ratio for BTC is 1.03, showing a slight bias toward downside protection. However, the data also reveals that these traders are not expecting a major sell-off, but rather preparing for short-term uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and broader macroeconomic trends.
This measured positioning suggests that while volatility could spike during and immediately after the expiry, extreme price swings are less likely unless macro conditions trigger large-scale repositioning.
The “Pinning Effect” and Market Psychology
Large-scale expiries often introduce what analysts call the “pinning effect.” This occurs when the underlying asset’s price tends to hover near its max pain point due to the combined influence of hedging flows and traders adjusting open interest before expiration.
As explained by derivatives experts at Coincu Research, the upcoming expiry could stabilize Bitcoin and Ethereum prices near their respective max pain levels through Friday, followed by heightened volatility over the weekend.
In previous major expiries, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rebound slightly after settlement as traders unwind short-term hedges and re-enter the market with fresh positions. Ethereum, on the other hand, has historically reacted more sharply to such events due to its higher sensitivity to DeFi-related leverage.
Broader Market Conditions
The timing of this expiry coincides with a cautiously optimistic sentiment in global financial markets. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week indicated softer inflation, prompting hopes of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term.
Bitcoin, often regarded as a macro-sensitive asset, briefly rose above $113,500 following the inflation report before retracing slightly. Ethereum mirrored this movement, supported by growing institutional interest in Layer 2 networks and ETF speculation.
However, traders remain wary, as ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating liquidity conditions continue to influence short-term sentiment. The Deribit expiry could act as a catalyst, providing the volatility needed for a breakout or correction depending on post-settlement market flows.
Analysts Weigh In
Analysts remain divided on the short-term impact of the expiry. Some expect a neutral outcome, arguing that the balanced put/call ratio and absence of extreme leverage suggest that the market is already well-positioned.
Others caution that even a modest imbalance could trigger quick liquidations in a low-liquidity environment. “When options of this scale expire, small directional moves can cascade into larger liquidations due to delta hedging,” said one derivatives strategist at a Singapore-based crypto fund.
If Bitcoin manages to stay above the $112,000 support zone post-expiry, it could open the path toward $117,000, aligning with the broader technical setup observed in recent weeks. Conversely, a break below $111,000 could invite additional selling pressure, extending the correction toward $109,000.
Ethereum faces similar dynamics, with key resistance around $4,250 and support near $3,950.
What Comes Next
Following the expiry, traders will shift focus to November’s macro events — notably the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and subsequent guidance on interest rates. Should the Fed hint at further easing, risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, could see renewed inflows.
Until then, the derivatives market remains the battleground where sentiment and strategy collide. With $16.98 billion in contracts expiring, this week’s Deribit event underscores just how deeply institutional structures have shaped the modern crypto landscape.
In summary, while the expiry may not trigger a major market move immediately, it represents a key inflection point for liquidity and positioning. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain delicately balanced — with traders watching closely to see whether the post-expiry phase brings stabilization or sparks the next wave of volatility.
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