Depending on who you talk to, a trade deal between the European Union and the United States has essentially been agreed or negotiations are on the brink of collapse.
The latter outcome could precipitate a nasty and damaging trade war between the two massive economies. The benign scenario, on the other hand, is likely to be greeted by many Irish exporters not with relief but weary resignation.
Developments over recent days point not to the 30 per cent tariffs Trump threatened the EU with two weeks ago, but a still painful 15 per cent flat rate for most EU goods entering the US.
The agreement Trump’s administration struck with Japan last week, will lead to a general 15 per cent tariff applied to Japanese imports. This was secured after the US president had threatened the country with a 25 per cent rate.
With European negotiators reportedly ready to accept 15 per cent as part of “the shakedown”, carveouts for specific industries and sectors will be crucial in determining whether many Irish businesses can retain access to the United States.
The pressures of the last few months have reportedly claimed some victims.
Last week, Killarney Brewing and Distilling company went to the wall after a failed examinership process. Laying off 54 workers, the company cited the “high tariffs on Irish whiskey exports” as one of the reasons why it was unable to continue trading.
The precise rates applied to Irish food and drink will be critical to whether many businesses remain competitive.
Sarah Furno of Co Tipperary cheese maker Cashel Blue describes the mood within the Irish cheese industry as one of “insecurity, fear and indeed sadness”.
She notes that big global cheese players such as Lactalis and Savencia have already rushed to build production in the US to get ahead of the tariffs – an option not available to smaller brands.
[ Profits rise at Cashel Blue producer with aims to fund further capital investmentOpens in new window ]
“As speciality independent cheesemakers we are at the very opposite end to pharma in terms of scale and ownership,” says Furno.
For Cashel Blue, a 30 per cent rate such as the tax Trump threatened would “price Cashel off the shelf” in the US, she says.
As with other blue-cheese producers, the rate applied to Cashel’s products has been 15 per cent since Trump’s “Liberation Day”, April 2nd, when he announced a broad package of import duties, and that has proven difficult.
“It’s hard work at the moment. We are fortunate to be established and to be a team,” says Furno. “I’m so fortunate to manage our family business with my husband and first cousin and a very stable local team in the cheese rooms – together we stay strong and positive”.
Furno says her company has had to refocus on the UK market – where it has some competitive advantages – and expects Australia to grow in importance. However, she is not giving up all hope that things could change again in the US.
“This climate makes you think with agility, makes you realise nothing is stable or constant. It is a time to reach out, to stay in contact with those we know in the US – for this will pass.”
[ What would a 15% tariff deal mean for Ireland?Opens in new window ]
If Europe and the US do indeed plump for 15 per cent across all goods, this might just keep access open, she says.
“At least we could have a good conversation to see how we could make it work … if the figure is too high, it closes conversations,” she says.
For Hazelbrook Confectionery in Newbridge, the idea of exporting to the US has been made unfeasible by the relentless uncertainty around potential tariff rates.
This is despite the fact that the US confectionery market is valued at more than $50 billion (€44 billion).
Earlier this year, the company made the decision not to wait and see whether Trump was bluffing; its Cleeve’s, Urney and Hadji Bey brands will not be appearing on American shelves.
“Back in 2024 we were getting a lot of inquiries on all of the above from the USA,” says founder Leo Cummins, who employs 26 people at Hazelbrook’s Co Kildare facility.
“But in early 2025 it became clear that there would be uncertainty on US pricing – and given the tight margins in the confectionery industry, we instead transferred our focus to the UK and European markets.”
Having spent the past four years figuring out solutions to the barriers thrown up by Brexit, he describes Hazelbrook’s exports to the UK as “booming”.
He says it’s much better to focus instead on countries where there are no tariffs. The company has started selling into France and is looking at opportunities in Canada.
“It makes sense in our case to largely ignore the US market for now and instead focus on export markets where we can be immediately competitive”.
For those who feel they can no longer remain competitive in the US, the standard advice from State bodies is to diversify and improve competitiveness.
But the sheer size of the US market cannot be ignored or easily replaced, no matter how much energy is spent chasing new export opportunities.
Then there are those products whose entire selling point is they are uniquely Irish and made nowhere else, such as Irish whiskey.
Anything higher than 10 per cent and a lot of Irish whiskey companies will struggle to continue selling into the US – margins will be completely wiped out
— Eoin Ó Catháin, Irish Whiskey Association,
The industry has endured an agonising period . For much of this year, potentially catastrophic tariffs have loomed over distillers, many of whom had hitched their fortunes to a growing demand for Irish products in the US.
Many smaller operators are loath to speak on the record in the current climate.
Eoin Ó Catháin, director of the Irish Whiskey Association, says the industry has been reluctant to become “the face” of the tariff discussion and most Irish whiskey producers have instead opted to quietly focus on navigating the coming months.
Recent reports of a carveout for the spirits industry could prove to be a lifesaver for many of them, he says.
“The current 10 per cent tariff is already proving challenging for exporters, compounded with a weaker dollar. Anything higher than 10 per cent and a lot of Irish whiskey companies will struggle to continue selling into the US – margins will be completely wiped out,” he says.
Many smaller producers have tried to front-load deliveries to the US in advance of any potential increase on that existing 10 per cent tariff.
“Any complications that exist are far greater for an SME – getting the product from grain to glass is more expensive for a smaller company,” says Ó Catháin. “What we’re hearing is that a lot of companies have tried to ship products ahead of the tariffs – but are now seeing the price of warehousing going way up.
“A return to the zero-for-zero trading deal for spirits such as Irish whiskey would recognise the unique nature of our products. Our supply chains can’t be moved – Irish whiskey cannot be made anywhere else.”
The whiskey industry would be uniquely vulnerable to potential tit-for-tat measures in any potential trade war. Ó Catháin says European negotiators have, to date, been sensitive to the concerns of spirits manufacturers but “we need a solution now”.
North of the border, Irish whiskey producers say they continue to sell into the US, but American buyers have become more cautious.
Exports from Northern Ireland fall under the British deal that was struck in May – which comes with a general 10 per cent tariff on goods.
Brendan Carty, who runs Killowen Distillery, near Rostrevor in Co Down, showed some of his US distributors around the site during the week.
“There is certainly a more conservative approach – but at the same time there is no stopping of trade between us,” he says.
Like other small producers, Carty has identified opportunities in other jurisdictions.
“Doors have instead opened in Canada – as they have removed all their US trade,” he says.
The one thing that each of these small producers stresses is the faith they have in the quality of their respective products.
Either US consumers will continue to purchase their goods, even if they are forced to increase the price, or, if not, they are confident they can secure a foothold selling into other countries due to the specialised nature of what they offer.
So much depends on the exact numbers the EU and the US are able to agree upon.
Furno says Cashel has endured Brexit, Trump’s first trade war, Covid and Trump’s return.
“Our objective is stability in adversity,” she says.