Betting markets have switched to seeing a lower chance of a partial government shutdown after midnight Eastern, following multiple published reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson plans a vote today on a measure that would include funding to March, a key farm bill and disaster aid, but no hike for the U.S. debt limit. Polymarket was showing a 46% chance of a shutdown, down from 68% earlier.
“We will not have a government shutdown, and we will meet our obligations for our farmers who need aid, for the disaster victims all over the country, and for making sure that military and essential services and everyone who relies upon the federal government for a paycheck is paid over the holidays,” Johnson told reporters on Friday afternoon.