MLB Futures Best Bets Post All-Star Break
Best Bets To Make/Miss Playoffs:
Milwaukee Brewers (-330, DraftKings) to Make Playoffs
Implied Odds: 76.7%
Model: 89.1%
Analysis: The model is extremely high on the Brewers. Milwaukee has a 4.5 game lead for a playoff spot at this point and despite the expensive -330 line, we still like the value here. Brandon Woodruff just came back from injury and looks to not have skipped a beat despite missing nearly two seasons, rookie Jacob Misiorowski is throwing 103 mph, and Nestor Cortes should return soon and add more pitching depth.
Seattle Mariners (-188, FanDuel to Make Playoffs)
Implied Odds: 65.3%
Model: 83.2%
Analysis: The Mariners should not miss the playoffs with the pitching rotation that they have, but they need to show more consistency going forward. They swept the Tigers, who have the best record in baseball, on the road in their last series, but they were swept by the Yankees the series prior. Cal Raleigh has been on fire and leads the MLB in homers, Randy Arozarena has caught fire as of late, and Julio Rodriguez tends to play better in the second half of the season. The Mariners also have a strong farm that they can use to add a piece or two at the deadline.
Boston Red Sox (-115, DraftKings) to Make Playoffs
Implied Odds: 53.5%
Model: 66.9%
Analysis: The value at -115 on DraftKings is too good to pass up, as almost every other book sets the line at -140. The Red Sox are red hot and went into the all-star break on a 10-game win streak. The Red Sox, like the Mariners, have a ton of talent in the farm– even after bringing up Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony — and have plenty of trade pieces to go out and grab an arm to pair with Garrett Crochet.
St Louis Cardinals (-280, DraftKings) to Miss Playoffs
Implied Odds: 73.7%
Model: 84.2%
Analysis: The Cardinals are likely to sell at the deadline, so we suggest getting this price while its still somewhat worth betting. The Cards are all the way at -335 to miss the playoffs on Caesars. According to our model, the Cardinals have the second toughest schedule in baseball over the rest of the season.
Minnesota (-350, DraftKings) to Miss Playoffs
Implied Odds: 77.8%
Model: 88.1%
Analysis: This is another spot to play the books before its no longer worth betting. The Twins are all the way at -480 to miss the playoffs on FanDuel. Despite having the easiest schedule year to date, the Twins are two games below .500 and are likely sellers at the deadline.
Best Bets to Win Division:
Chicago Cubs +600, DraftKings to Win NL
Implied Odds: 14.3%
Model: 35.3%
Analysis: The Cubs are ahead of the Dodgers in the model even though when healthy, the Dodgers pitching is superior and probably gives them an advantage in the postseason. However, you can’t bet on health, and the model loves the Cubs going forward. The Cubs have a few MLB ready prospects (Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros) that could be used to land a starting pitcher and another bat. Buy the Cubs now before they make that big trade.
Milwaukee Brewers +1100, DraftKings to win NL
Implied Odds: 8.3%
Model: 15.6%
Analysis: This is more of a longshot play on a model favorite. The Brewers aren’t elite in any category, but they are not going to be an easy out come postseason.
Seattle Mariners (+800, DraftKings) to win AL
Implied Odds: 11.1%
Model: 16.7%
Analysis: Another longshot play here, but the AL is much more open and elite pitching wins in the postseason. The Mariners’ bats are heating up, and they could add a piece or two at the deadline.
Best Win Totals Bets:
Chicago Cubs O 94.5 Wins (-122, FanDuel)
Model Line: 97.1
Boston Red Sox O 85.5 Wins (-110, Caesars)
Model Line: 87 Wins
St. Louis Cardinals U 84.5 Wins (-125, Caesars)
Model Line: 81.4 Wins
Cleveland Guardians U 79.5 Wins (-110, Caesars)
Model Line: 77.7 Wins
Kansas City Royals U 79.5 Wins (-105, FanDuel)
Model Line: 75.3 Wins
Miami Marlins O 69.5 Wins (-110, Hard Rock)
Model Line: 72.8 Wins