Nothing is ever fully out of the realm of possibility until the math says it is, and the Orioles have the benefit of time in that equation. Not much time, but time nonetheless.
Baltimore doesn’t have the benefit of much else — injuries and slumps have buffeted the club’s early-season resolve — but with 104 games remaining, a path to the postseason is still possible, however arduous.
Entering Tuesday, though, there is a more important timeline to consider. The Orioles have 50 games left to play ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.
Those 50 games, in all likelihood, will hold the answer for how general manager Mike Elias approaches the deadline. Even if the Orioles are far from contention at the end of next month, Elias may not go into a full-sell mode. Baltimore has enough players under team control that it would face a retooling, not a repeat of the tear-down the club began in 2018.
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Still, according to The Athletic, the Orioles have informed clubs they would be sellers at the deadline if their fortunes don’t improve. And before the Orioles designated Cionel Pérez for assignment last week, they floated the possibility of a trade with other organizations involving the left-handed reliever, according to a source.
While it’s hard to pinpoint exactly where the Orioles would need to sit in the standings on or near July 31 to warrant Elias standing pat — let alone buying — at the deadline, for the purposes of this story, we’ll use interim manager Tony Mansolino’s stated goal of reaching .500. The fact the Orioles are (only) nine games back of a wild card spot means they might not need to reach .500 by the deadline to have a playoff spot within reach, but it’s a target that makes sense.
At 22-36 entering Tuesday’s series opener against the Seattle Mariners, the Orioles would need to go 32-18 over their next 50 games to reach .500.
To put that another way: Baltimore has played at a 61-win pace to this point. To get to 54-54, the Orioles would need to play at a 104-win pace (.640 winning percentage).
The only team in baseball thus far that has played at a winning percentage better than what Baltimore must do are the Detroit Tigers (.650). That’s a daunting task, even with several injured players nearing a return. And as of Monday, the projection systems heavily doubted the Orioles’ ability to do the miraculous. FanGraphs listed Baltimore’s playoff odds at 1.8%. Baseball Reference projects a less than 0.1% chance for the Orioles to clinch a wild card spot.
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Weirder things have happened.
Baltimore is playing better baseball of late. The Orioles are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they’re coming off their first series sweep of the season. The fact it came against the Chicago White Sox doesn’t prove much, of course, other than that Baltimore is assuredly not the worst team in the American League. For the moment, the Orioles are still only the second worst.
The resurrection of the rotation in recent weeks has been helpful. The imminent returns of outfielder Colton Cowser and infielder Jordan Westburg are bonuses. In the second half, Baltimore could see right-handers Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Albert Suárez and Grayson Rodriguez throw meaningful innings.
That’s all good news.
But there’s also a reason why the Orioles have played at a 61-win pace thus far, and injuries only tell part of the story. The performance of the starting rotation and the lack of clutch situational hitting are just two glaring areas in this poor start.
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The 50 games between now and July 31 don’t come against White Sox-level competition, either. Seven of the 13 opponents the Orioles will face have winning records. And while the overall win-loss record of those 13 clubs amounts to a .490 winning percentage, the 9-50 record of the historically poor Colorado Rockies skews that. Take out that three-game series, and the upcoming competition has a combined .518 winning percentage.
It’s worth considering the 2022 deadline as an example in all this, too. The timing is somewhat different, because in 2022, the apparent competitive window wasn’t fully opened to the point it was supposed to be this season. But the 2022 Orioles weren’t far off from a wild card spot. They were .500 on deadline day. At that stage, within striking distance, Elias opted to sell expiring contracts.
A week after the deadline saw closer Jorge López and first baseman Trey Mancini depart, the Orioles were 56-52. They finished the season three games back in the wild card race.
There’s no guarantee, then, that a .500 record this year when the trade deadline arrives ensures Baltimore won’t sell. Still, if the Orioles can close the gap on a wild card spot, perhaps they will assume a mixed approach — one that doesn’t ensure the likes of Ryan O’Hearn, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Cedric Mullins will leave in a fire sale.
Even last year, the Orioles were nuanced. They traded for Eflin, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez and Trevor Rogers, among others. They also moved longtime outfielder Austin Hays and engaged in a prospect swap with the Pittsburgh Pirates when they traded outfielder Billy Cook for right-hander Patrick Reilly.
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Maybe 2025 will bring about a mix of both — that is, adding players who are under team control for longer than this season while jettisoning some mainstays. For any of that to happen, though, Baltimore must get through the next 50 games. At the end of this stretch, a buy, sell or stand-pat approach should be apparent.
Of course, the hole in which the Orioles find themselves may have decided that for them already, regardless of any upcoming strides.