BABA is trading within striking distance of a historically bullish trendline
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) shares are 2% lower to trade at $106.55 at last glance, sliding alongside the broader market amid tariff uncertainty. Despite today being on track for its third-straight loss, the equity still sports a 26.8% lead for 2025, with a familiar floor at the $100 level ready to contain any additional losses. Even better, the stock is now trading a trendline that has historically resulted in bullish returns.
According to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, BABA is within one standard deviation of its 200-day moving average. Shares were above this this trendline in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, and spent 80% of the past two months above it. Within these parameters, three other signals occurred during the last five years, after which the equity was higher one month later 67% of the time, averaging a 6.9% gain.
For those looking to weigh in on the stock’s next moves, options look like an affordable route. This is per BABA’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 32%, which sits in the 8th percentile of its annual range. This indicates options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.
It’s also worth noting that Alibaba stock has usually outperformed these expectations during the past year, per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 87 out of 100.