For many, the idea of success or failure in sport is very simple — you either win the championship, or you wasted the season.
But clearly there must be some middle ground. So many factors contribute to the expectations surrounding an AFL club; from how they’ve built their team and what assets they’ve spent or saved, to how recently they’ve actually had success.
So, keeping all necessary context in mind, Foxfooty.com.au analyses every AFL club’s 2025 hopes and gives them an early pass mark they must hit.
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Smith reveals why Cats was top choice | 01:24
ADELAIDE CROWS
Pass mark: Make the finals
Rightly or wrongly, it looms as a do-or-die season for Matthew Nicks in 2025. After five years at the helm, the Crows are still yet to play finals under Nicks – although it’s well-documented that he was deprived of that chance in 2023 through no fault of his own. Despite the lack of fortune last year, it counts for less now that his side were unable to play in September this time around. The inclusions of Alex Neal-Bullen, Isaac Cumming and James Peatling should considerably strengthen them around the ground, and allow them to become a finals force for the first time in eight years. With Taylor Walker almost certainly entering his final year in the AFL, the onus on Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe will grow quickly – and could decide their finals fate for next season.
BRISBANE LIONS
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
If you’re the reigning premier, you’re expected – rightly or wrongly – to be in the thick of it all the next season. The hole left by the retired Joe Daniher up forward has been discussed a lot, but as good as he was, it shouldn’t derail their plans to go back-to-back at all. In fact, a return to full fitness for Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy, Tom Doedee and Darcy Gardiner at the start of next year should make the Lions even better. If they can avoid the sluggish start they had this season, they should be very well placed to give themselves a double chance this next time around; heightening their chances of going back to back.
Rayner signs six-year extension | 02:04
CARLTON
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
Injuries saved them some grace in the second half of the 2024 season, but the Blues at their best should be finishing in the top four – and are probably a top three flag favourite. With a seriously good spine (perhaps short of a second star defender alongside Jacob Weitering) and engine room that many fans dream of, Carlton’s premiership window is wide open. They’ve floated around the mark for a few years now, and with Charlie Curnow, Patrick Cripps, Harry McKay and Weitering all in their prime, they need to make the final four for 2025 to go down as a notable step towards the ultimate glory.
COLLINGWOOD
Pass mark: Make the grand final
Wait, but didn’t Collingwood miss the eight all together last year? Similarly to the Blues, the Magpies were cruelled with injury at the wrong time of year in 2024 – but they also have their slow start to blame for a lack of September action. That being said, the black and white army are absolutely all in for the now – exhausting their draft hand entirely in 2024 and their first-round pick for 2025. Not to mention that veterans Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe are likely heading into their final season of AFL – perhaps 403-gamer Scott Pendlebury too. With their inevitable departures in the next 24 months, their premiership window could close quicker than most – which is what makes their pass mark so high. At full fitness with the addition of recruits Dan Houston and Harry Perryman, there aren’t many reasons why they shouldn’t contest for the flag. It feels wrong to say that a loss in a preliminary final would constitute their seasons a failure, but their recruiting, draft hand and retention of much-needed veterans suggests the club also thinks similarly.
ESSENDON
Pass mark: Make the finals
It’s been the same old story for the Bombers every year in recent memory – make finals. Obviously, winning a final would be the ultimate pass mark for more reasons than one, but given they’ve only made it once in five years, entry is the pass mark. With no notable recruits in the off-season and most of their draft assets heading towards NGA product Isaac Kako leaves a lot of intrigue around how much they’ll improve in 2025, but Brad Scott’s side are due for a rise up the ladder. Brad Scott is absolutely the best man for the job at Windy Hill, it’s now mostly about on-field execution.
FREMANTLE
Pass mark: Win a final
After making a somewhat premature semi-finals berth in 2022, the time for a steep rise in stocks is now for Fremantle. Having since missed out on back-to-back September appearances, the Dockers’ youth has had it’s time to develop since – and now it’s time to pounce. With one of, if not the strongest (and most promising) spine across the league, it’s hard to not see Justin Longmuir’s side finally flourish in 2025. The expectations we have for the purple army next season are certainly higher than their finish this year – but we think they can meet them.
Could Freo be the next top 4 team? | 01:04
GEELONG
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
A club that fell only 10 points short of the eventual premiers Brisbane in a preliminary final this year, the Cats continue to stay at the pointy end of the competition. Add recruit Bailey Smith and the impending arrival of delisted free agent Jack Martin, and the Cats should only get better – not to mention players like Shannon Neale, Lawson Humphries, Jhye Clark and Ollie Dempsey will have another pre-season under their belts come 2025. The expectations are high, but they’ve set this type of bar for well over a decade now!
GOLD COAST SUNS
Pass mark: (Finally) make the finals
Much like Essendon, the Suns have had the same pass mark for more than several years now – but they’re still yet to get the green tick. After a season to settle in on the Gold Coast, both Damien Hardwick and his players need to get the whips cracking ASAP. They continue to tease fans year in, year out – but there’s no denying that despite some poor moments in 2024, they are improving. The acquisition of John Noble, Daniel Rioli and the impending recruit of Academy prospect Leo Lombard should give Hardwick’s list the boost it needs to finish the home-and-away season in the top eight, despite the loss of Jack Lukosius from their best 23.
‘I think Gold Coast is the winner’ | 00:37
GWS GIANTS
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
The Giants are the hardest of the 18 teams to gain a reading on for a pass mark in 2025. The loss of Isaac Cumming, Harry Perryman and James Peatling could end up testing their depth – but on the contrary, they could also take THREE first-round picks into this year’s draft – currently 15, 16 and 21. Tom Green, Finn Callaghan, Darcy Jones and Aaron Cadman look closer than ever to taking their game to the next level. Subsequently, their ceiling is very high, but it remains an unknown as to how deep their exits will cut come March next year. Having made the semi-finals three times in the last four seasons, it feels fair to say a preliminary final berth ticks off their season.
HAWTHORN
Pass mark: Win a final
For a team that in fact won a final (and nearly two) this season, the metric of ‘merely’ making finals in 2025 seems strangely low. But to make finals, they must do what has eluded both Fremantle and Adelaide in recent years after a steep rise in output – back it up. Since their semi-finals appearance in 2022, the Dockers have taken a step back from September; as have Adelaide after 2023, a year where they should’ve made finals. The inclusions of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle down in defence should seriously strengthen their artillery, and they now have the power to charge deep into September. If they make finals next year, the Hawks will have reaffirmed that this season wasn’t just an anomaly, and they’re more ready than rival clubs in recent times after a spike in form.
MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Avoid the bottom six
In what is anticipated to be another incredibly tight finals race, it would be unfair to call Melbourne’s pass mark qualifying for September. However, given the turbulence that has affected the club in recent months, being thereabouts come finals time would have to be considered a positive result. After three consecutive seasons of 15-plus wins, the Demons managed just 11 this year after falling in five of their final six matches — with the heat now firmly on senior coach Simon Goodwin to deliver, particularly as the prime years of Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Olivers gradually wind down.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Win six games
For a side that has won 15 games across their last five seasons, it’s clear that the Kangaroos’ metric for success isn’t finals or ladder position – it’s victories. 2024 saw Alastair Clarkson’s side win three games, with Gold Coast the notable of them in Round 17. All of Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher should again stamp their authority on the competition, while the likes of Zane Duursma, Paul Curtis and Charlie Comben all look set to have a steady incline in their output. It’s been said before, but the Roos currently have the best youth of them, the Eagles and Tigers – which has to at some point see them rise from the depths of the bottom two. Six games may seem like a lot for a side with their recent history, but with Clarkson now in his third year at Arden Street, fans need to start seeing tangible progress on the ladder.
Stephenson confirms shock retirement | 00:23
PORT ADELAIDE
Pass mark: Make the grand final
As harsh as it may sound to some, the Power just have to win a preliminary final for their season to be counted as a pass. Having lost three preliminary finals in five years, the margin for error is now arguably as thin as it’s ever been at Alberton – especially given their evident plan of recruiting players for the ‘now’, and not as heavily through the national draft. That being said, Port currently hold picks 13, 29, 36 and 50 – so while the loss of Dan Houston certainly still hurts, the inclusion of Jack Lukosius, a rising Joe Richards and as many as three strong draftees into their best 23 might just be all they need. Another pre-season under the belts of stars Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis and captain Connor Rozee will only do them good – given their midfield’s average age is only 23!
RICHMOND
Pass mark: Win four games
The Tigers managed just two wins from 23 last season, and to make matters more difficult heading into next season, key contributors Shai Bolton, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker and Jack Graham departed for rival clubs in the off-season, while Dustin Martin and Dylan Grimes were among the retirees. Richmond will see an influx of highly talented youth arrive at the draft, but winning two more games on top of this year’s meagre tally will be a challenge. However, in senior coach Adem Yze’s second year in charge, improvement needs to be seen from a game-plan perspective — and with a host of players set to return from season-ending 2024 injuries, there will be more assets at Yze’s disposal next year, making a four-win total an appropriate ask.
ST KILDA
Pass mark: Make the finals
Now a year removed from its elimination final loss to GWS after a 13-10 campaign in 2023, the Saints, in Ross Lyon’s second season back in charge of the club, stumbled through most of this season but finished promisingly en route to an 11-12 record. Despite the loss of Josh Battle to Hawthorn, there remains long-term optimism about St Kilda’s young talent in Max King, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Mitch Owens, Darcy Wilson and Mattaes Phillipou — plus veteran recruit Jack Macrae — enough so that their pass mark is a finals appearance.
Trade Recap: St Kilda Saints | 01:27
SYDNEY SWANS
Pass mark: Win the flag
Generally accepted as the best team in the competition this year, the Swans have now officially handed themselves the pass mark – a premiership. John Longmire’s side has consistently challenged the league since their last flag in 2012 but having lost four grand finals between now and then, they simply must find success for a season to truly be graded a success — as harsh as it sounds. Improvement is needed in between the arcs at both ends to give Longmire’s side more stability, but there’s no doubt that they can still win it as things stand.
WEST COAST EAGLES
Pass mark: Win six games
With a rookie senior coach and a steadily improving list in tow, the Eagles need to improve by one game next season in order to consider their 2025 campaign a relative success. Expected to again be around the mark with Richmond and North Melbourne in the bottom four, the expectations in Andrew McQualter’s first year at the helm won’t be high. And after adding established senior players Liam Baker, Jack Graham and Matthew Owies in the off-season, tacking on another win to this year’s tally shouldn’t be seen as asking too much.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Pass mark: Win a final
A telling year awaits the Bulldogs and their star-studded core, led by senior coach Luke Beveridge, who enters a contract year with considerable expectations. The expectation is that they build on this year’s sixth-place finish, having fallen to an inspired Hawthorn in an elimination final. Going a step further next year won’t be a straightforward task, having lost Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel over the course of the off-season — the Dogs attempted to offset those losses by adding out-of-favour ex-Carlton utility Matthew Kennedy to add depth to a tantalising midfield mix. With a rising younger core of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Sam Darcy and Ryley Sanders supporting established stars such as Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, Aaron Naughton and Tom Liberatore, the Bulldogs should be aiming high in ‘25.