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MGIC Investment’s price target has just been nudged up to US$30, while the fair value estimate remains at US$28.75. This highlights how small tweaks in the model, rather than a new fair value call, are shaping the updated view. The latest Street commentary links this move to how credit quality and mortgage activity into 2026 could influence what investors are willing to pay for MGIC Investment, with bulls and bears interpreting the same setup in very different ways. Stay tuned to see how you can track these shifting assumptions and keep up with how the story around MGIC Investment evolves from here.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for MGIC Investment shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on MGIC Investment.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Barclays recently set a US$30 price target for MGIC Investment and kept an Equal Weight rating, which points to a balanced but constructive stance rather than a clearly negative one.
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In its 2026 outlook, Barclays highlights what it describes as a benign credit environment as a positive backdrop, tying this to its view that loan growth and a better mortgage origination market in 2026 could support MGIC Investment.
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The January research note implies that analysts at Barclays are rewarding MGIC Investment for being positioned to benefit if mortgage activity improves, while still recognizing that some upside may already be reflected in the current valuation.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Barclays has also issued a later update indicating that its price target on MGIC Investment was lowered by US$2, signaling that at least one part of its prior optimism has been tempered.
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The combination of an Equal Weight rating and a reduced price target suggests that Barclays sees MGIC Investment as fairly balanced between risk and reward, with concerns about how much upside is already priced in and how sensitive the story is to changes in credit quality and mortgage volumes.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
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Fair Value: The fair value estimate is unchanged at US$28.75. The move in the price target to US$30 reflects adjustments in the model inputs rather than a new view on underlying value.
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Discount Rate: The discount rate has shifted from 7.56% to about 7.44%. This modestly lifts the present value of projected cash flows in the model and can help explain part of the higher target.
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Revenue Growth: The revenue growth assumption has moved from roughly 3.20% to about 3.07%, indicating a slightly more conservative stance on how fast revenue might expand over time.
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Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin has gone from about 48.83% to roughly 48.94%, building in a small improvement in expected profitability for MGIC Investment.
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Future P/E: The future P/E assumption has adjusted from about 9.81x to roughly 9.65x. This applies a slightly lower earnings multiple and helps balance the impact of the other changes in the model.
Narratives are simple stories that connect your view of a company to the numbers behind it, tying together assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins with an estimated fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives help you see how a company’s story links to a financial forecast and fair value, so you can compare Fair Value to the current Price. As news or earnings hit, the Narrative updates, keeping your investment thinking current without extra effort.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on MGIC Investment to stay on top of what really matters in the story:
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How the credit backdrop and housing affordability shape demand for MGIC’s mortgage insurance over the coming years.
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What the current assumptions for revenue, profit margins, earnings and P/E mean for the US$28.75 fair value and analyst targets.
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Which risks around originations, payout ratios and delinquencies could challenge the consensus view on long term profitability.
Follow the full MGIC Investment Narrative on Simply Wall St to see how the story, numbers and fair value fit together in real time.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MTG.
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