Volatility has been the name of the game thus far in 2026. Despite this, Wall Street is set to end the first month of the year with a very positive signal. The S & P 500 is on course to end January by rising more than 1%. Historically, a January gain has preceded a strong annual performance. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S & P 500 averages a 17% advance in years in which the “January Barometer” is positive. The barometer has also correctly predicted an annual advance in 41 of 46 years in which January has ended with a gain. This is “the best thing for the market,” Jeff Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, told CNBC Pro. “There’s really no other seasonal indicator that comes close with predictive power and relevance. When the market is up in January, it confirms that the Street’s read on economic activity, geopolitics, U.S. politics and corporate results is bullish.” Wall Street has navigated a tumultuous January, with the U.S. attacking Venezuela and removing dictator Nicolas Maduro. On top of that, President Donald Trump threatened NATO allies with new tariffs tied to plans to annex Greenland. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) earlier this month hit a high of 20.99, a level not seen since early December. But stocks have been able to recover from these headwinds. Should the S & P 500’s month-to-date gains hold, they would mark the fourth straight positive January for the benchmark. Here’s a look at the January Barometer in years it’s positive.
January Barometer: S&P 500 squeaking out a gain this month is a good sign for rest of year
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