Economists forecast initial jobless claims to increase from 198k (week ending January 10) to 212k (week ending January 17). Meanwhile, economists expect the Core PCE Price Index to rise 2.8% year-on-year in November, mirroring September’s trend.
As part of the Fed’s dual mandate, a cooling labor market and softer inflation would support a more dovish Fed rate path. A more dovish Fed policy stance would boost demand for US equity futures.
Other stats on Thursday include finalized US GDP numbers for Q4. Economists forecast the US economy to expand 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from 3.3% growth in the third quarter. Strong US economic momentum and expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 would be a boon for risk assets, reaffirming the positive short- to medium-term outlook for US stock futures.
This week, President Trump signaled stronger economic momentum and softer inflation. CN Wire reported:
“Trump: US inflation has been defeated, core inflation has been 1.5%, 4Q growth projected 5.4%. US economy is on pace to grow at double IMF projected rate.”
While the US economic indicators will influence sentiment, traders should closely monitor earnings, given expectations of strong Q4 results. Intel Corp. (INTC) is among the companies to announce results. Robust earnings and a positive outlook would add to the positive momentum for tech stocks.
Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500
Following Wednesday’s rally and the morning gains, the Dow Jones E-mini, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini, and the S&P 500 E-mini traded above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs indicated a bullish bias, aligning with positive fundamentals.
Near-term trends will hinge on geopolitical developments, earnings, and US economic data. Key levels to monitor include:
Dow Jones
- Resistance: the January 13 record high of 49,901, and then 50,000.
- Support: 49,000 followed by the 50-day EMA (48,422).