Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq edge down with eyes on Trump's Venezuela oil deal, looming jobs data

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US stock futures tilted lower on Wednesday, backing away from record highs as investors absorbed a promised deal to send Venezuela oil to the US and waited for fresh jobs data to lead in the all-important monthly report.

Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) slipped 0.3%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) nudged down 0.1%, coming off a record-high close for the benchmark. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) traded broadly flat after the blue-chip index closed above 49,000 for the first time.

Wall Street is poised for its first downbeat day in 2026 as markets grappled with the Venezuela risks they largely brushed aside as stocks rallied to records. On Tuesday, President Trump said the country will relinquish and send up to 50 million barrels of its crude output to the US — valued at $2.8 billion.

“This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump wrote on social media.

Crude prices fell to extend their early-year slump after the comments. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures, the US benchmark, changed hands below $57 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) dropped toward $60.

More broadly, attention is shifting to a packed slate of economic releases, with markets looking for an up-to-date health check as the flow of US data begins to normalize after recent disruptions. Eyes are on the ISM reading on US services activity in December, after Tuesday’s S&P Global update showed a slowdown.

But labor data takes focus on Wednesday, with ADP’s December update on private sector employment. Business job creation essentially stalled in the final months of 2025, though forecasts call for modest growth this time. Investors also get a peek at November’s JOLTS data, showing the number of job openings in the market, as well as the number of Americans who quit or were laid off.

Those releases set the stage for Friday’s December jobs report, which has taken on critical importance as investors view it as a key test of whether the economy is cooling enough to justify Federal Reserve policy changes in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, the CES 2026 show continues to provide food for thought as heady promises from tech leaders clash with Wall Street expectations of what the sector can achieve. Discussion has centered on Nvidia (NVDA), as analysts diverge on whether the AI chipmaker is at the popping point of a bubble or at the beginning of a second sweltering run.

LIVE 7 updates

  • Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.

  • Premarket trending tickers: GameStop, Deckers, and First Solar

    GameStop (GME) stock rose 3% before the bell after it was announced that CEO Ryan Cohen’s compensation package would depend on the company hitting a $100 billion market cap goal.

    Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock fell 4% during premarket trading on Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected results for its second quarter results on Tuesday, but citing tariff pressures.

    First Solar (FSLR) stock edged lower on Wednesday by 4% following Jefferies downgrade to Hold from Buy and a reduction in price target of $260, down from $269.

  • Strategy stock rises as MSCI drops plan to exclude digital asset treasury firms

    Strategy (MSTR) stock rose 3% before the bell on Wednesday, following MSCI move to not proceed with a proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its indexes.

    Reuters reports:

    Read more here.

  • Mobileye stock rises after acquiring humanoid robotics startup Mentee for $900M

    Mobileye (MBLY) stock jumped 11% premarket on Wednesday after announcing on Tuesday that it will be purchasing a humanoid robotics startup called Mantee Robotics for $900 million.

    Reuters reports:

    Read more here.

  • Goldman forecasts 20% gains for China stocks in 2026

    Bloomberg reports:

    Goldman Sachs projects that Chinese stock benchmarks will post another year of growth, though at a slower pace than in 2025, with earnings supported by AI and policy measures.

    The MSCI China Index is forecast to climb 20% to 100 by end-2026 from its 2025 close, while the CSI 300 Index (000300.SS) is seen rising 12% to 5,200, strategists including Kinger Lau wrote in a note Wednesday.

    “Our expected equity gains in 2026 are almost entirely earnings-driven,” they said. Profit growth will be “supported by AI, ‘Going Global,’ and anti-involution policy.”

    China’s equity rally has carried strong momentum into the new year, and Goldman Sachs joins other major firms in maintaining a positive outlook despite hefty gains in 2025. The upgrade reflects confidence that earnings expansion, policy initiatives, and new growth drivers will keep investors engaged.

    Read more here.

  • Gold falls as oil fears over Venezuela subside

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.

  • TSMC reaching record prices bolsters brokerage targets

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.