Expectations of supply glut pull down crude prices in 2025

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Crude oil prices declined by nearly 20 per cent in 2025 due to factors such as expectations of oversupply in global markets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, initiated output boost in 2025 to retain its market share. OPEC+, which will meet on January 4, is expected to maintain its plan to pause supply increases in the first quarter of 2026.

Expectations of surplus in the market led by higher output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers and decline in demand for the commodity led to the decline in prices of crude oil during 2025.

A Reuters report said that Brent crude futures shed about 19 per cent in 2025, the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2020 and its third straight year of losses, the longest such streak on record. US West Texas Intermediate crude logged an annual decline of almost 20 per cent.

It said that Brent futures settled at $60.85 a barrel, down by 0.8 per cent on Wednesday, US WTI crude fell by 0.9 per cent to settle at $57.42 a barrel.

At 9.59 am, January crude oil futures were trading at ₹5212 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹5213, down by 0.02 per cent.

However, factors such as wars, higher tariffs by countries such as the US, and sanctions on Russia and Iran and Venezuela helped boost the prices of the commodity to some extent during the year.

Meanwhile, latest reports from the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a decline in US crude oil inventories for the week ending December 26.

According to US EIA, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels from last week, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 5 million barrels.

Total products supplied in the US over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, slightly below the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up by 0.4 per cent from the same as the last year period. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 0.3 per cent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 2.1 per cent compared with the same four-week period last year.

January natural gas futures were trading at ₹324.70 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹337.30, down by 3.74 per cent.

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), Janaury dhaniya contracts were trading at ₹10500 in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹10400, up by 0.96 per cent.

Janaury jeera futures were trading at ₹22535 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹22335, up by 0.90 per cent.

–EOM–

Published on January 1, 2026