Gold, silver and copper are expected to lead the next leg of the commodity rally in 2026, supported by structural supply constraints, strong investor demand and themes such as electrification and artificial intelligence, while crude oil is likely to remain range-bound, according to senior commodity strategists at BofA Securities and Standard Chartered.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said silver has emerged as the standout performer within precious metals after prices more than doubled in 2025. She said the rally is rooted in a multi-year structural deficit, which has become more visible this year due to shrinking availability of above-ground stocks and regional dislocations triggered by tariff concerns.
“Silver has been the strongest outperformer across the precious metals complex,” Cooper said, adding that inventories have tightened sharply across key markets, pushing lease rates and spot prices higher. Investor demand has also remained robust, with exchange-traded funds recording fresh inflows of more than 4,000 tonnes this year, further extending market tightness.
However, Cooper cautioned that silver could see some near-term consolidation after the sharp run-up. She said prices may face short-term risks from softer industrial demand and growing substitution concerns, even though the material impact of substitution is unlikely to be felt for a couple of years. “Overall, we think there is room for a correction,” she said, while adding that silver prices are still expected to remain elevated by historical standards into late 2026.
On gold, Cooper struck a more constructive tone, saying the yellow metal is likely to hit fresh record highs next year, backed by strong central bank buying and expanding investor participation. She said Standard Chartered expects gold prices to average $4,488 in 2026 and rise further to around $4,750 by the fourth quarter of the year. While some profit-taking could emerge in the near term, she said gold is more likely to see consolidation rather than a deep correction, with structural drivers such as de-dollarisation, currency debasement and expectations of a more dovish US Federal Reserve remaining firmly in place.
Copper is also seen as a key outperformer among base metals. Cooper said the market’s focus has shifted decisively towards supply risks, which have helped push prices sustainably above the $10,000-per-tonne mark. Disruptions across multiple producing regions, combined with regional inventory tightness, have kept the market on edge. She said the $11,000-per-tonne level will be critical in 2026, where prices are expected to be sustained.
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Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity and Derivatives Research at BofA Securities, echoed the bullish view on metals, saying they remain positive on the broader commodity complex, led by industrial and precious metals. “We are positive on the commodity complex, particularly industrial and precious metals,” Blanch said, adding that BofA expects copper to rise to $13,000 per tonne and gold to approach $5,000 per ounce. He also sees silver moving towards $65 an ounce, supported by its structural deficit and its importance in electrification as the best electrical conductor.
In contrast, both strategists see limited upside in crude oil next year. Cooper said the oil market appears comfortable with prices in the low $60 per barrel range, despite persistent talk of oversupply. Investor interest in oil remains muted compared with metals, and positioning suggests appetite is close to historical lows. Blanch said BofA is less positive on crude oil and natural gas due to surplus conditions, highlighting a clear split within the energy complex as metals continue to attract the bulk of investor attention heading into 2026.
Watch accompanying video for entire discussion.