Prices of global agricultural commodities will likely increase in 2026 with new markets and uses providing avenues for growth, analysts say.
“We expect grain prices to increase on an annual average basis in 2026. However, we expect upside from current levels to be moderated by strong seasonal output in the 2025-26 season, which will support physical availability throughout the year,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES), in its research, said global grain prices will likely fall, reflecting record global production.
However, global growth in import demand for grains and oilseeds is expected to remain steady despite geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, it said.
‘Cautiously optimistic’
US multinational financial services firm Morgan Stanley’s Executive Director Gregory Liebl and Vice-President Adam Swinney said in their 2026 projections that their outlook was “cautiously optimistic”.
They said that after the price volatility of the early 2020s, many agricultural markets have now entered a period of relative stability.
Strong harvests, improved supply chain logistics and adequate inventories have helped make food commodity prices more affordable in many regions, they said.
“For instance, global supplies of grains like wheat and corn have been ample, leading to softer prices and even modest declines in 2025,” they said.
Trade volume to expand
The outlook comes at a time when prices of commodities such as wheat, cotton, rice, palm oil, canola, sugar, cocoa, rapeseed and corn have been bearish this year.
BMI expects grain prices to increase on an annual average basis in 2026. However, it has projected an upside from current levels to be moderated by strong seasonal output in the 2025-26 season. This will support physical availability throughout the year.
It expects grain farmers in exporting markets, agricultural input suppliers, and economies dependent on grain exports to gain. However, food manufacturers and governments could be on the receiving end.
Morgan Stanley said even with near-term price stability, the volume of agricultural trade will likely expand, benefiting agro-exporters and the sector broadly.
Softs may ease
Abares said record global supply could drag wheat prices, with production estimated at a record 828 million tonnes (mt)
The Australian agency said international coarse grain prices are forecast to fall across all grain types in 2025–26, reflecting record production.
BMI has forecast a broad easing of prices within the softs complex on an annual average basis. “However, this is largely a consequence of price pressures already sustained during the latter part of 2025, with most of the downside behind us,” it said.
Morgan Stanley said that in 2026, distortions in commodities such as coffee could begin to normalise.
Oilseeds set to rise
ABARES said global oilseed prices are forecast to rise in 2025–26. “Overall supply remains tight, with increased global consumption outweighing the effects of strong global production (driven largely by Europe and South America),” it said.
BMI projected mandate increases in key feedstock-producing markets to limit global availability, particularly Indonesia’s pursuit of B50 biodiesel.
“Meanwhile, we also expect the US biofuel sector to undergo significant restructuring in 2026 following the EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard,” it said.
This will help soybean producers, crushers and Malaysian palm oil producers to gain, while industries dependent on non-fuel uses could feel the heat.
Scepticism over China’s soy buys
ABARES said global oilseed production is expected to rise by 2 per cent, reaching 688 million tonnes in 2025–26.
It said that with the US and Canada looking to resolve tariffs imposed by China on soybeans and canola, respectively, uncertainty is creating some additional volatility in the oilseed market.
BMI said it was cautiously sceptical of the reported US- China soybean purchase agreement announced in October 2025. It said that any trade flows between the two countries, despite reflecting an uptick, will be modest compared to historic norms and restricted to Chinese state purchases.
Published on December 16, 2025