Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities
Nifty closed below 26,000 on Monday as selling pressure persisted, raising doubts over whether the recent rally is fading and whether the index can recover after two sharp sessions. Gift Nifty indicates a cautiously positive start this morning, though any rebound may be short-lived with volatility expected to remain elevated ahead of Tuesday’s F&O expiry.
Sentiment is dampened by Rs 18,013 crore of FII outflows in November and uncertainty around the India–US trade deal, even as Wall Street’s firm opening and rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut—now priced near 65%—lend some support.
Investors are also awaiting India’s GDP print on Friday. Technically, a breakout remains possible but needs a close above 26,109, while 25,671 is the key support that, if broken, could cement a bearish turn.
In the trading book, the preferred setups are: Nifty sell between 26,050–26,100 with targets at 25,871/25,650 (aggressive 25,337–25,350); Bank Nifty buy between 58,100–58,300 with upside levels at 59,300/59,550 (aggressive 59,900–60,100).
Stock-wise, the day stays bearish on Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Coal India, with Coal India a sell at CMP 373, targeting 361/349 (aggressive 321).