Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni isn’t flinching.
While the stock market wrestles with what seems a messy pullback, he’s calmly reaffirming the same message.
Yardeni feels the bull market is firmly intact, despite all the AI bubble chatter.
He points out that the S&P 500 flirted with the 6,890 mark in late October, which is close enough to his 7,000 target for the end of 2025.
He isn’t backing away from his long-term call, either.
Yardeni still expects the index to reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, driven by record bottom-line numbers, broadening market participation, and an economy that refuses to falter.
Ed Yardeni is a prominent Wall Street market strategist, currently serving as the president of Yardeni Research, an independent economics and investment strategy firm.
Before kick-starting his own shop, he served as either chief economist or chief investment strategist at EF Hutton, Prudential, and Deutsche Bank.
The market punditry knows him for coining the term “bond vigilantes,” which is Wall Street jargon to describe investors who bump bond yields as a punishment for governments that overspend.
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He also popularized the “Fed model,” a simple yet influential framework that relates earnings yields to Treasury yields in determining whether a stock is cheap or expensive.
His calls matter for obvious reasons, as he has spent decades tying big-picture macro views to stock-market targets, leaning optimistically but data-driven.
As he puts it, “History shows the smartest thing to do is just to invest over the years… sometimes you’re going to get bargains and sometimes you’re not.”
Yardeni’s take essentially zooms out from the day-to-day volatility and looks at the broader market mechanics.
He argues that the AI boom isn’t cracking, but instead cooling to a sustainable pace.
The S&P 500 is still tracking over 12% year to date, which aligns closely with its 10-year average.
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Similarly, the cap-weighted stock market index is also tracking 7.2% above its 200-day moving average, showing megacaps are carrying plenty of momentum.
Also, the equal-weighted S&P is sitting right on its 200-day trend line, which shows the rest of the market cooled off but hasn’t cracked. Additionally, the Nasdaq is up over 15%, aligning perfectly with its decade-long pattern.
For Yardeni, the real reason he’s backing his 7,700 S&P 500 target for 2026 is earnings.
Corporate profits continue to beat estimates by 2× for three consecutive quarters, with forward earnings expected to converge with $309.28 (2026 estimate), along with the “Impressive 493” (S&P, excluding the Mag 7), also at new earnings records.
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Market trend remains intact: Indexes are normalizing, not breaking, with major benchmarks at or near their long-term trendlines.
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Earnings are the backbone: Forward EPS is surging toward the 2026 estimate of $309.28, with broad participation beyond mega-caps.
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Why 7,700 makes sense: Yardeni sees valuation pressure, but the earnings engine that continues to power the rally is intact and growing.
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Deutsche Bank: Wall Street’s new mega-bull calls for the S&P 500 to hit 8,000 by the end of 2026.
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Morgan Stanley: Mike Wilson sees 7,800 in 2026, on earnings growth and AI efficiency.
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BMO: Brian Belski hiked his 2025 target to 7,000, citing “Goldilocks” growth along with a more dovish Fed.
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Goldman Sachs: More cautious, Reuters reports, lifting its 2025 target to 6,800 on rate cuts and solid profits.
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HSBC: The base case has 2025 at $6,500, but a $ 7,000 bull case if tariffs remain contained, according to Reuters.
Another reason Yardeni points out for the market feeling jumpy is that no one trusts hyperscaler GPU accounting.
He feels that investors have suddenly come to grips with the fact that they don’t know how long these chips really last.
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Additionally, if the industry’s four- to six-year depreciation schedules still make sense when hardware is leapfrogged annually.
That’s a big part of why the Mag-7 forward P/E has dropped from 31.0 to 28.1, with Yardeni thinking those multiples could slip further as investors seek clarity.
Interestingly, the “Big Short” Michael Burry hammered the same point, warning that Nvidia’s extended GPU depreciation schedules are puffing earnings that hide the true economic life of its chips.
Related: Veteran analyst delivers surprise post-Q3 verdict on Nvidia
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Nov 24, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.