In its latest monthly WASDE report, the USDA revised up its 2025/26 corn production estimates by 72m bushels to 16.8bn bushels on higher acreage; the market was expecting production estimates of around 16.5bn bushels. If realised, this would mark the highest output since 1933.
Meanwhile, export estimates were revised up from 2,875m bushels to a record of 2,975m bushels. 2025/26 ending stock estimates were lowered by 7m bushels to 2,110m bushels because of higher exports. The market was expecting a number closer to 2,013m bushels. For the global market, the USDA expects 2025/26 corn production to fall marginally to 1,286.6mt this season, down from the earlier estimate of 1,288.6mt. Supply losses from the EU (-2.7mt) and Russia (-0.9mt) offset supply gains from the US. The agency lowered its global corn ending stocks estimates by 1.1mt to 281.4mt at the end of 2025/26 on lower production numbers. The market was expecting a number closer to 282.1mt.
The USDA also increased US soybean production estimates by 9m bushels to 4,301m bushels for 2025/26. This was higher than market expectations of 4,262m bushels. The agency further raised the consumption estimates by 19m bushels to 2,666m bushels, while export projections decreased by 20m bushels to 1,685m bushels for the 2025/26 season. With exports falling, ending stocks estimates were revised up by 10m bushels to 300m bushels. The market was expecting a number closer to 287m bushels.
For the global markets, the USDA revised down the 2025/26 global inventory estimates from 124.9mt to 124mt. This was also lower than the average market expectation of 125.1mt. Global soybean production estimates were reduced by 0.5mt to 425.9mt. The agency also reduced global demand and beginning stock estimates to 423.9mt (-1.2mt) and 123.6mt (-0.9mt), respectively.
For the US market, the USDA decreased its estimates for US wheat inventory at the end of 2025/26 to 844m bushels compared to earlier estimates of 869m bushels, and lower than the market expectations of 863m bushels. The inventory estimates were revised lower largely on account of increasing exports, with estimates rising by 25m bushels to 900m bushels. Meanwhile, the production and consumption estimates were left unchanged at 1,927m bushels and 1,154m bushels, respectively, for the year.
Looking at the global market, the USDA revised up both production and demand estimates to 816.2mt (vs 806.9mt) and 814.6mt (vs 809.5mt) respectively. The inventory estimates for wheat increased from 260.1mt to 264.1mt at the end of 2025/26, higher than the market expectation of around 261.1mt, primarily on account of higher supplies.