South Africa faces a tough choice between appeasement, alignment, and long-term economic independence as Washington’s tariffs take aim.
With the US trade tariffs set to take effect on 1 August 2025, countries around the world are preparing for heightened economic and political turbulence. Pretoria, in particular, awaits the unilateral imposition of a 30 percent “reciprocal” tariff, which could be increased further depending on how South Africa responds to the directive. The effects will be far-reaching, not only for exporters but for the broader economy, which is already under severe pressure.
Although certain key mineral exports, including platinum group metals, gold, manganese, nickel and zinc, have been exempted, the tariffs present a serious threat to strategic sectors such as citrus, macadamia, manufacturing, steel and aluminium. Agriculture and manufacturing remain two of the most vital pillars of South Africa’s economy. They sustain both national output and household livelihoods, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas where jobs are scarce.
In recent years, South Africa has faced sustained scrutiny from the United States over its trade approach, foreign policy orientation, and domestic political conduct. This is despite repeated attempts by Pretoria to reset its relationship with Washington. These tariffs appear to confirm that bilateral ties are at their weakest point since formal relations began in 1929. The situation has been aggravated by the 22 July 2025 decision by the US House Foreign Affairs Committee to approve a bill calling for sanctions against leaders of the African National Congress.
Roughly 22 South African companies are currently invested in the United States, employing close to 6,900 people. These include Sasol’s major investment in a gas-to-liquid facility in Louisiana, which supports 1,200 permanent positions and created 7,000 construction jobs during its development. On the other side, South Africa hosts more than 600 American companies across a wide range of industries. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, these companies employ approximately 134,600 South Africans. Trade statistics from South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry and Competition show that the country exports far more to Asia, Europe and Africa than to the Americas. Even though the United States is South Africa’s largest trading partner in the Western Hemisphere, the broader trade relationship is uneven. Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has warned that these tariffs could result in 100,000 job losses, particularly affecting agriculture and the automotive sector.
South Africa has little capacity to respond in kind. Its share of total US trade is negligible, at only 0.25 percent, while around 7 percent of South Africa’s exports go to the United States, representing the same fraction of total US imports. Around 37 percent of South African exports to the United States are unaffected by the tariffs. Still, the South African government faces a serious challenge in devising both immediate and long-term responses to this unfolding economic crisis.
Politically, the tariffs place the government in a difficult position. The dispute raises broader questions about South Africa’s foreign policy direction, including its stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict and its deepening ties with BRICS. Several commentators have argued that South Africa should not allow its internal or foreign policy to be influenced by external pressure. To concede would be to accept diminished sovereignty, reducing the country to little more than a client state.
Since the formalisation of diplomatic relations in 1998, China has emerged as South Africa’s most significant trade partner. Bilateral trade reached 52.46 billion US dollars in 2024, while trade with the United States stood at 20.5 billion US dollars over the same period. The closeness between the ANC and the Chinese Communist Party is a factor, but the deterioration of SA–US ties is also due to long-standing neglect. With China’s policy of non-interference and more favourable trade terms, it is not surprising that developing countries, including South Africa, have leaned more heavily into their relationships with Beijing. The imposition of US tariffs risks further eroding the Global South’s aspirations of meaningful industrialisation.
In response, South Africa must urgently expand its trade horizons. New markets must be identified, trade agreements initiated, and alternative supply chains developed without delay. A truly transformative trade policy will have to centre on long-term economic sovereignty. This includes support for local production, worker-driven industrial development, and a deliberate shift away from raw commodity dependence. At the same time, diplomatic channels must be actively pursued to ease tensions and resolve the standoff with the United States.
About the Author: Itumeleng Makgetla is a political analyst based at the University of Pretoria.