The NBA free agency period is just a few days old and already we have seen a number of contenders make big swings, while last season’s runner-up raised eyebrows with one move.
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From Western Conference heavyweights putting the Oklahoma City Thunder on notice to a LeBron James waiting game, foxsports.com.au breaks down some of the winners and losers so far.
WINNERS
Denver Nuggets
It is funny to think that just last week, Nuggets owner Josh Kroenke inadvertently made himself Public Enemy No.1 after seemingly leaving the door open to the unthinkable.
In case you missed it, when he was asked about the impact of the second apron (a financial threshold which severely limits the types of moves an organisation can make) Kroenke made the mistake of bringing up three-time MVP Nikola Jokic in the same sentence as a potential trade.
“For us as an organisation, going into that second apron is not necessarily something that we’re scared of, (but) I think that there are rules around it that we needed to be very careful of with our injury history,” Kroenke said.
“The wrong person gets injured, and very quickly you’re into a scenario that I never want to have to contemplate, and that’s trading No. 15.”
Of course, Kroenke was not actually suggesting that the team was remotely considering trading Jokic.
But it certainly didn’t go unnoticed and for the Nuggets, who had so much money tied up in Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, it spoke to the uncomfortable reality that another wrong injury could mean desperate times for Denver.
Not anymore.
The Nuggets traded Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick to the Nets for Cam Johnson, while in the process getting off the $78 million that Porter Jr. was owed in the next two seasons.
Johnson, on the other hand, is owed just $44 million. By saving $17 million, Denver was able to then bring back championship-winning guard Bruce Brown on a veteran minimum’s deal, sign Tim Hardaway Jr. and later trade Dario Saric for the more expensive Jonas Valanciunas, who is a major upgrade as a back-up big behind Jokic.
You can debate whether Johnson is an upgrade over Porter Jr. or not, but at minimum he will provide similar sort of production as a spot-up 3-pointer shooter and capable defender while he also played more off the dribble and as a shot-creator in Brooklyn.
He should be a relatively seamless fit in Denver’s starting line-up and while staying healthy has been a concern in recent years, it is hard to gauge how much of that was playing for a tanking Nets team.
As for Brown, he is a perfect culture fit in Denver having been part of its championship-winning roster in the 2022-23 season and while he has struggled to reach the same heights in stops at Indiana, New Orleans and Toronto, all three teams weren’t exactly setting the world on fire as a whole.
With that in mind, Brown may be the kind of player who thrives in the right environment and a return to Denver could bring the best out of the veteran guard.
Regardless, the Nuggets desperately needed some reliable scoring off the bench and Brown, at the very least, should provide an upgrade there.
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Hardaway Jr., who also signed on a veteran minimum deal, is yet another sharpshooter to fill out Denver’s rotation while Valanciunas will give the Nuggets more flexibility to rest Jokic.
Jokic put in an MVP-level season for the Nuggets and while it wasn’t enough to get them over the line, they still pushed the eventual champions Oklahoma City to seven games despite Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon both playing through injuries.
The injuries wouldn’t have been as big of an issue if the Nuggets had ready-made depth to step in, but instead Denver was largely relying on younger players like Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson to make a leap.
Now, the Nuggets are suddenly super deep and while that 2032 first-round pick could end up being high, Denver has positioned itself for a serious tilt at the title in the next three years.
Atlanta Hawks
Say your farewells, Chicago and Miami. Atlanta will no longer be part of the annual race between the Eastern Conference’s middling teams to get out of the play-in tournament.
At least, if everything works out as planned the Hawks won’t.
First, they traded down to 23th in the draft to take Asa Newell, who they were already considering taking at 13th overall before the call came in from the Pelicans.
The result? Atlanta got its guy while also picking up New Orleans’ unprotected 2026 first-round pick, which could be extremely valuable if there is a Zion Williamson injury or if Milwaukee blows it up, since it’ll be the better pick of the Pelicans and Bucks.
That was just the start of the Hawks making serious improvements to build around Trae Young, trading for a stretch big in Kristaps Porzingis and then picking up a strong perimeter defender and 3-point shooter in Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Add in another floor-spacing option in Luke Kennard, who the Hawks signed to a one-year, $11 million deal, and this Hawks team is suddenly incredibly deep and looks capable of challenging for a top-four finish in the Eastern Conference.
Of course, there were some departures with Atlanta losing both Clint Capela and Caris LeVert, but on a whole the Hawks look positioned to be big risers, especially when you consider they lost Jalen Johnson to injury at the back-end of last season.
Considering all the talk about Young potentially requesting a trade over the years, the Hawks have finally been able to make the kind of moves that put their star guard in a position to succeed.
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Houston Rockets
Of course, it all started with the Kevin Durant trade and that was clearly just a taste of what was to come from a Houston team that has an exciting young core but also looks ready to take a serious swing in the West next season.
They signed one of the most coveted 3-and-D players on the market this summer in Dorian Finney-Smith, landing him on a smart four-year deal worth $53 million.
Houston then added more depth by snapping up Clint Capela, who returned to Houston on a three-year, $21.5 million contract from Atlanta.
Then when it comes to existing talent, the Rockets extended Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet, setting themselves up both for the present and future.
“The Rockets are patching up every single hole that they seem to have,” ESPN’s David Dennis said on ‘Get Up’.
“The Dorian Finney-Smith move was an absolute heist to make up for Dillon Brooks. The depth that they have. The coaching that they have. They have all the things that a lot of these teams seem to be lacking when they’re going into a season.
“The depth, the size, the defence, the dynamic scorer in Kevin Durant, and they have definitely one of the best coaches in the league.”
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But going back to the Durant deal, not only did the Rockets trade for an elite, number one scoring option that they lacked in the crunch minutes this past playoffs, they also did it without mortgaging their future.
They were able to keep the aforementioned Smith Jr. along with Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, only giving up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the No.10 pick in this year’s draft and five second-rounders.
Meanwhile, the Rockets also still have plenty of ammunition at their disposal should another big name become available on the market, including a pair of unprotected Suns’ first-rounders.
With that in mind, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on ‘Get Up’, there could still be more to come.
“The biggest thing about the Rockets that you have to look at as you evaluate them is that this might not be the final team,” Windhorst said.
“Yes, if this is the team that they bring to the beginning of the season in October, they’re going to be a contender to Oklahoma City, but because they have all these draft assets and all these young players, they can still go out shopping for a major transformational player if one becomes available.”
Damian Lillard
For so many years, he prized loyalty over easier paths to winning but now, Damian Lillard has a chance to be the master of his own destiny.
Even after being traded by Portland, Lillard didn’t land at his first-choice destination of Miami but after being waived by the Bucks, he is in a position to pick where he wants to play next while also receiving every cent of the more than $110 million he was owed over the final two years of his contract.
Lillard’s agent, Aaron Goodwin, described it as an “incredible opportunity” for his client.
“He receives all of his money guaranteed, and it provides him an opportunity to decide his next destination as an unrestricted free agent,” Goodwin said.
“He gets a chance to rehab at home if he chooses to, and be with his family and his kids for the next year. The goal is for him to take his time and make a decision on what his next destination will be.”
Lillard tore his Achilles in the first round of the playoffs, so there was always going to be a major question mark over how he would look when he returned, especially as a soon-to-be 35-year-old short guard who relies on his speed and agility to make shots.
Sure, all those same questions will still be there but there won’t be the albatross that was his previous contract with the Bucks hanging over him.
It should make it far more palatable for a contender to sign Lillard on a team-friendly deal while for the star point guard, he can be patient and wait for the right opportunity to pop up.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Who knows what the Bucks’ franchise superstar is going to do next.
You would think that Milwaukee getting off the Lillard contract to sign Turner, while also adding Gary Harris and re-signing the likes of Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. among others would give Antetokounmpo a reason to stay around in Milwaukee.
After all, if Antetokounmpo wants to win another title he is certainly in a better position to do it now in Milwaukee than he was last week, especially with the reigning Eastern Conference Champions now without their starting centre.
But instead, Antetokounmpo’s social media activity in the wake of the Turner deal says otherwise.
Then you have the report from Chris Haynes that Antetokounmpo was “not pleased” with the way Lillard’s tenure at Milwaukee came to an end, and suddenly the two-time MVP’s future at the Bucks appeared clouded again.
ESPN, however, reported that Turner and Antetokounmpo were both excited about the opportunity to play with each other, which would suggest the ‘Greek Freak’ was certainly involved in the entire process.
Wherever the truth may lie, the fact Antetokounmpo is putting out cryptic social media posts shows he knows he is ultimately still in a position of power.
Whether that means staying in Milwaukee or eventually forcing his way out remains to be seen.
But you have to consider him a winner at this point regardless because even if he does stay, the Bucks have put him in a better position to win a title and even claim MVP honours for a third time by building an offence that is very much going to run through him.
Finding a creative way to get off of Lillard’s contract is a short-term win, but in the long-term if this version of the Bucks doesn’t work out the $22.6 million dead cap hit every season will seriously hinder their flexibility.
That could once again put Antetokounmpo’s future in the spotlight, but that won’t be his problem to worry about.
That is why it is hard to position the Bucks themselves as clear winners or losers so far.
LOSERS
Indiana Pacers
We’ll never know. Maybe the Pacers were one healthy Tyrese Haliburton game away from an NBA championship.
To come so close and for it to end in such devastating fashion, with Haliburton at risk of missing the entire 2025-26 season, was just cruel.
And now, there has been another gut punch.
Haliburton’s injury seemingly changed Indiana’s plans. The expectation was that the Pacers front office was happy to pay the luxury tax for the first time in 20 years if it meant keeping their core group together.
But with Haliburton out of the picture, even in a relatively wide-open Eastern Conference, suddenly there was no guarantee Indiana would be back in the playoffs, let alone the NBA Finals.
That meant the Pacers were no longer willing to pay up to retain centre Myles Turner, who had continually been the subject of trade speculation throughout his time at Indiana.
It is funny that the moment it seemed like Turner was finally going to be staying put with the Pacers, he instead was suddenly out the door and given the reported money Indiana was willing to offer him, you can understand why.
Jake Fischer reported that the Pacers never went above $60 million over three years.
“Which is not the going rate for a starting centre, who is a borderline All-Star, who’s a proven postseason contributor,” Fischer added in a live stream for Bleacher Report on Wednesday.
Haliburton set to MISS next season | 01:17
To put that into context, the Raptors signed Jakob Poeltl to a four-year, $104 million contract.
Turner, meanwhile, agreed to a four-year, $107 million contract.
In essence, the Pacers misread the market for a player of Turner’s calibre.
Even if he isn’t perfect and struggled with his 3-point shot in the Finals, his combination of shooting and rim protection fit into Indiana’s system and identity as a fast-paced offence.
Fischer went on to report that the Pacers were “absolutely stunned” by the “about-face” from Turner, describing it as a “hell of a blow” for the Eastern Conference champions.
But in reality, if what Fischer is reporting is true and the Pacers weren’t willing to go above that three-year, $60 million mark, what did they expect?
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said if he was a Pacers players he would be “absolutely disgusted”.
“I am sick to my stomach,” he added.
“If I’m Tyrese Haliburton, I am breaking things right now. If I’m Rick Carlisle, I’m furious at just what’s happened because they were unwilling to spend a little bit of luxury tax money to hold this team in place for a year when Haliburton came back.
“To go to a team that they hate, they hate the Bucks. So it’s going to take a while to digest this, and if Giannis tweets later today a big smiling emoji and indicates that he is happy as a clam, the Bucks can declare a win. But I’m not sure the balance of power was changed in the Eastern Conference even though this has been a stunning turn of events.”
Realistically, as one Pacers source told The Athletic, the decision to not pay up for Turner wouldn’t have been as contentious if it didn’t result in him landing in Milwaukee.
“It’s not really all that stunning when you think about it,” the source said.
“It’s a bigger deal because it’s Milwaukee — if Myles had gone to Denver or the Clippers, it would be (perceived) totally different as far as (the Pacers) are concerned.”
The one silver lining is that the Pacers now have more money to put towards Bennedict Mathurin, who is extension eligible.
But if you are Mathurin or his agent, what do you make of the fact Indiana’s front office wasn’t willing to pay a player like Turner? Do you accept it to be a reality of what Haliburton’s injury means for the Pacers’ prospects next season or another example of ownership being cheap and not rewarding its players?
The so-called contenders in the West
A pretty straight-forward one. Both the Nuggets and Rockets have made major improvements to their roster in the offseason and shape as the biggest threats in the West to Oklahoma City.
Outside of them, the Lakers have lost Dorian Finney-Smith and lost out on their big-name targets at centre. The Clippers added Brook Lopez but still will only go as far as James Harden and Kawhi Leonard will take them. The Timberwolves and Warriors are largely running it back.
The Grizzlies traded away Desmond Bane and now have plenty of picks at their disposal, but it is still a question as to how they will use them while the Jaren Jackson Jr. injury isn’t ideal.
The Kings aren’t a genuine contender, the Mavericks will be a strong defensive unit but will be relying on Kyrie Irving hitting the ground running quickly when he returns from injury.
The Suns have addressed their frontcourt concerns but traded away Kevin Durant.
The Trail Blazers seem to think they are closer to contending than they actually are if the Jrue Holiday trade is anything to go by.
Meanwhile, the Spurs are definitely a team to monitor as they continue to build around Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper, but may still be a few seasons away.
Then you have the Pelicans who are another Zion Williamson injury away from disaster after trading an unprotected 2026 first-round pick and a Jazz team who don’t seem to be going anywhere.
All of that is to say that, as it stands, as much as the West remains a juggernaut it looks like Oklahoma City, Houston and Denver are the clear top three teams entering the 2025-26 season after free agency.
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Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga and other restricted free agents
The longer this goes on, the less likely it is Giddey, Kuminga and other restricted free agents like Cam Thomas are to get the kind of deal they wanted.
That was always the expectation this offseason though with the Brooklyn Nets being the only team with max cap space, meaning it was unlikely for any real competitive market to emerge for someone like Giddey.
While the Bulls have made the mistake of bidding against themselves in the past, they seem to have learned from the Patrick Williams contract by taking a more patient approach with Giddey.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported on Wednesday that a deal won’t come “anytime soon” for Giddey, while Chicago Sports Network’s David Haugh expected the Bulls to wait until they can sign the Australian to their preferred price.
“They don’t have to be in a hurry,” Haugh said.
“They are waiting maybe for the market to be established. You don’t want to bid against yourself like you did in the Patrick Williams negotiation on the contract. The problem for Josh Giddey is there are no other teams out there with the cap space.
“There aren’t a lot of teams out there with needs. The Nets were one of those teams. They went out there and addressed those needs, so you can strike them off the list.
“Unless it’s a sign-and-trade situation, I don’t think you’re going to get a team that’s that interested and I don’t think you want to trade Josh Giddey because his second half of the season was very strong… you’re going to get him at your preferred price but you can also afford to be patient because of that.”
Even a restricted free agent like Quentin Grimes, who thrived in an expanded role with the Philadelphia 76ers at the back-end of last season, remains available.
“If this isn’t the worst market for restricted free agents in the last generation, I don’t want to see it,” Windhorst said on ESPN. “There’s just no money out there.”
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Lakers
Let’s start with losing Dorian Finney-Smith.
He was one of the more valuable 3-and-D wings in the league, shooting 41.1 per cent from deep last season with the Nets and Lakers while L.A.’s perimeter defence will take a major hit without him.
He also has a strong relationship with the Lakers’ new franchise superstar Luka Doncic, having spent over four seasons playing alongside him during their time in Dallas.
All of that seemed to suggest L.A. would prioritise re-signing him. Instead, the Lakers didn’t want to give him a long-term contract and so Finney-Smith signed with Houston — another top Western Conference contender.
Jake LaRavia is a solid addition. But he’s not the kind of difference-maker DFS could be.
The Athletic’s Dan Woike reported that while the Lakers expected to lose Finney-Smith, they were hoping to use the money it freed up to pursue top free agent centers including Brook Lopez and Clint Capela.
Lopez, of course, signed with the Clippers while Capela linked up with Houston. So, that’s the Rockets getting even stronger while their L.A. rivals also added a different look to their frontcourt.
That then left Deandre Ayton, who was bought out by the Trail Blazers, as the top option and the Lakers subsequently signed him after he cleared waivers.
In fairness, the Lakers are reportedly only paying Ayton $8.1 million this season with Portland paying $25.6 million, so he is a relatively low-risk, high-reward gamble for the Lakers to make. But it wasn’t the slam-dunk answer L.A. was originally after.
The frontcourt, of course, had been a glaring weakness for the Lakers since the Anthony Davis trade and while it was obviously worth it to land Doncic, the clock is ticking in a sense when it comes to competing now with LeBron James still on the team.
Speaking of James, the decision to not get in a bidding war for Finney-Smith was also reportedly a move the Lakers made with the idea of preserving cap space for 2027.
ESPN reported that the team expects to have space to sign a max-salary free agent at that point, but with Jaren Jackson Jr. now off the market the question is who that will be.
And will LeBron be willing to wait, not just until 2027 but even for the duration of next season, to see who that will be and what direction the Lakers are heading in?
They clearly have a cornerstone piece to build around in Doncic, but in a loaded Western Conference does James believe the Lakers genuinely will be able to compete with the likes of the Thunder, Nuggets and Rockets?
James’ agent, Rich Paul, has now gone on ESPN and revealed four teams reached out to him about a potential trade while as part of his announcement that LeBron was exercising his $52.6 million player option for the 2025-26 season, Paul said the following:
“LeBron wants to compete for a championship. He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all.
“… We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what’s best for him.”
Consider it an unofficial warning. If he doesn’t feel like the Lakers are putting him in a position to contend for a title, James may request a trade.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on ‘NBA Today’ that he has been told James is “just chilling and watching the offseason”.
So, does he believe James will get traded? No, not at the moment.
“But if he wanted to get traded, there are teams who would step up and make offers,” Windhorst added.
Now, the waiting game begins.