The NFL draft is, finally, almost here, with the Tennessee Titans expected to take former Washington State quarterback Cam Ward with the first pick Thursday at sometime just after 5 p.m. to get things off and running.
The draft, held this year in Green Bay, Wis., will end sometime late Saturday afternoon with the 257th pick (a compensatory selection held by Kansas City).
The Seahawks have the 18th pick and five of the first 92 — the most picks in the first 100 of any NFL team this year and the most for the Seahawks since 2016, and tied for the for the most since 1977.
As we wait for the picks to start coming in, here are three lingering questions.
Will there be trades? And when?
It has become a storyline that every team still holds its original first-round pick.
As noted recently by the Arizona Cardinals’ website, it was already the first time since 1967 that every team went into the new league year holding its first-round pick.
So what’s the reason?
Some are pointing to the idea that most teams are grading only a handful of players — maybe six to eight or so — as potential difference makers.
After that is a big group of players — say from seven to 50 or so — generally viewed as equal.
That means teams at the top don’t see a reason to trade down and give up an elite player for a couple who may not be as good.
It also means that the motivation to move from, say, 30 to 23 may not be as great as in the past.
As fans don’t need reminding, the Seahawks have been among the most active teams during the 15 previous drafts under general manager John Schneider in either moving out of the first round or trading down.
The Seahawks have used their own pick just five times while trading down six times and trading the pick for a veteran four times (deals for Jimmy Graham, Percy Harvin and Jamal Adams).
Asked Monday about the lack of inactivity, Schneider said he wasn’t sure the reason.
“It sounded like last week people were going to be active, then nothing has really happened,” he said. “We’re just trying to stay in contact with everybody. I don’t know. It’s hard to tell. I don’t know if that’s just because of what the top of the first round looks like. I don’t know.”
NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said during an appearance Tuesday he thinks the reason for the lack of activity is the way teams have assessed the strength of the draft, saying teams would actually rather try to add picks for the future than this year.
“I do know that in taking to a bunch of teams in trade-back scenarios they are interested in collecting future picks,” Jeremiah said. “I think there’s a lot of people who would love to put the car in reverse, but I can’t find a lot of people who want to put the car in drive in terms of moving up for guys.”
That could mean the Seahawks will be staying put at 18.
The good news is they already have 10 picks, more than all but two other teams, so they don’t need to feel compelled to add picks to fill out depth.
What will happen with the quarterbacks?
The Titans announced Tuesday they will not trade the first pick, with everyone expecting it will be used on Ward.
As the draft nears, there is some thought Ward could be the only QB taken in the first round.
That would obviously mean Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders taking a precipitous fall.
Some have speculated Sanders could go as high as three to the Giants.
At least one noted NFL observer, Albert Breer of SI.com, think there’s a chance Sanders falls to the second round. Breer wrote Monday: ”A lot of people were surprised a few months ago when I said, in a few different places, that Sanders could go No. 3 or he could go 33 — at the time, conventional wisdom held he was a top-10 pick. I still think that wide range is in play.”
For that to happen, that would mean the Seahawks would be among the teams passing on Sanders.
Others think Sanders won’t fall past the Steelers — who have an uncertain long-term QB situation — at 21. That would also mean the Seahawks passing on Sanders.
Could they be tempted?
While bringing back Drew Lock last week to back up Sam Darnold doesn’t rule out the Seahawks taking a QB at some point in the draft, it would seem to make it unlikely the would take one on the first two days.
Darnold turns 28 in June, Lock 29 in November. With each under contract through at least the 2026 season, the Seahawks seem to have their 1-2 QB situation set for the next few years.
Another thought on the signing of Lock is that the Seahawks assessed the draft and concluded they might not find a better backup in what appears to be increasingly regarded as a weak QB class.
Breer Tuesday quoted an AFC assistant coach saying: “I don’t think the class is very good. I think it’s a lot like the 2022 class (when Kenny Pickett went 20th overall to the Steelers and then no other QBs until 74 in the third round), with maybe the exception of Cam Ward. But he’s gonna go first overall. And if you put him in last year’s class, he’s sixth or seventh [overall] for me.”
Is NIL impacting the draft?
As the NIL era of college sports has taken hold, some have wondered about its effect on the draft. Some draft-eligible players may be compelled to stay in college by NIL money, which could be the equal or even better than they might get in the middle-or-late rounds of the draft.
It’s hard to definitively prove how many players may be making that decision.
Some players may have more reasons than just immediate money for staying, such as getting another year of experience to improve their pro prospects down the road.
Eventually all players will become draft eligible, even if a year or two later, so in the big picture it evens out.
Schneider said Monday that some players projected for later rounds of the draft are staying put.
But he said he wasn’t sure if it was having any impact on this year’s draft.
“Yeah, that’s happened,” he said. “For some reason this year’s group, it’s pretty strong throughout. But yeah, that’s legit. A lot of guys staying. Fifth on down probably.”
Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, who spent the 2021 season as the defensive coordinator at Michigan, the year the NIL rules went into effect, said he thinks any cause and effect is hard to determine.
“I think it’s too early to tell,” he said. “I think we’re really getting gassed up in that process. When we were at Michigan, it just started. That was ’21. I guess we’re four years in now. Probably more returns on that over the next couple years.
“I think if you put more eggs in one basket one way or the other, I think it might be a little dangerous. You start attributing it to certain things, you may or may not be correct. That might not be the right way to go.”