The Minnesota Timberwolves are in an interesting position with the NBA trade deadline on Thursday.
The first six weeks of this season were an angst-ridden mess of starts and stops, defensive slippage, crunchtime ineptitude and a palpable grinding of the gears as Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo tried to replace Karl-Anthony Towns. Fans were pulling their hair out over the trade each time they checked a Knicks box score only to see Towns with another 28 points, 14 rebounds and three assists.
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Even after dispiriting losses to the dreadful Washington Wizards on Saturday and the De’Aaron Fox-less Sacramento Kings on Monday, the numbers surrounding the Timberwolves over the last two months tell the story of a team that is finding itself. Only seven teams have more wins than Minnesota’s 18 since Dec. 1. The Wolves went 10-6 in January with wins over the LA Clippers, New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns and had the fifth-ranked offense and 10th-ranked defense. Minnesota’s 6.3 net rating was the fourth-best in the month.
At 27-23, they are four games back of the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets but are also just 1.5 games up on 11th-seeded Golden State. The Wolves are a team with issues and talent.
Wolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly has been one of the most aggressive dealmakers in the NBA since he arrived in Minnesota three seasons ago, pulling off major deals for Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and, of course, trading Towns just before training camp last fall.
With the trade deadline looming, there is no sign that another big trade is coming. The Wolves have had enough good moments over a large sample size of games to discourage team leaders from being outright sellers. But their status as a second-apron team and lack of significant ammunition prevents them from being big buyers, too.
The Wolves have long been big fans of Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox, team sources told The Athletic, but the second apron restrictions mean they could not aggregate multiple players in a package for Fox. The Wolves also did not have the stash of draft picks that helped San Antonio complete the three-team deal with the Kings and Chicago.
As difficult as this season has been at times — never more so than in consecutive home losses to the Wizards (without their top four scorers) and Kings — Connelly and coach Chris Finch like what they have seen.
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They have the fourth-best defense since Dec. 1, a sign that the identity that propelled this team to the Western Conference finals last season is starting to re-emerge after a rough start to the season. Anthony Edwards was sensational in January, averaging 30.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists while hitting 44 percent of his 3-pointers, looking every bit the face of the franchise after he struggled to acclimate to the Randle-Gobert frontcourt in the early portion of the season.
“There’s not a lot to talk about. I think there’s a lot of belief in this team internally,” Finch said before a win over Atlanta on Jan. 27. “We think that the best solutions for ourselves are internal. I’m sure they’re active in terms of being on the phones, taking or making some calls. But I don’t think there’s an urgency around anything right now. There’s probably more of an optimism about what we have here.”
The Spurs are pairing Fox with Victor Wembanyama. The Lakers and Mavericks pulled off one of the biggest trades in league history when Los Angeles sent Anthony Davis and Max Christie to Dallas for Luka Dončić. The Kings could be interesting after replacing Fox with Chicago’s Zach LaVine.
The feeling here is that if the Wolves do anything this week, it will be something minor along the lines of last season’s deadline trade for Monte Morris rather than the mega-deal that brought Conley and Alexander-Walker to Minnesota from Utah while sending D’Angelo Russell to the Los Angeles Lakers. Shooting, ballhandling and rebounding are all areas that could be improved, but right now it is difficult to find a deal that makes sense.
Things can always change in a heartbeat, so now is a good time to look at the Timberwolves’ trade landscape.
The apron
Before we get to the players on the roster, it’s important to discuss Minnesota’s financial situation. The Timberwolves’ payroll has pushed them into the dreaded second apron, making them one of the most expensive teams in the league this season. They traded their 2031 first-round pick to San Antonio on draft night for Rob Dillingham, so they don’t have any of their first-rounders to use in offers.
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Teams in the second apron cannot aggregate contracts to send out (one aspect that made trading for Fox so unlikely) and they cannot send out cash in trades to balance deals. Once the trade market is over and teams turn their eyes to buyouts, the Wolves cannot sign a player who was waived if that player made more than $12.8 million.
They do have a 2025 lottery-protected first-rounder from Detroit that was acquired in the Towns trade available to use in deals, a pick that has solid value now given the likelihood that it conveys this season. But the Wolves also might want to hold onto that pick given they do not have their own choice in the upcoming draft because that is headed to Utah as part of the Gobert deal.
Untouchable
Anthony Edwards
Contract: Year 1 of a five-year, $245 million deal.
Season: 26.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 44.6 field-goal percentage, 42.1 3-point percentage, 83.2 free-throw percentage.
Outlook: After a little bit of an underwhelming start to the season while adjusting to life without KAT, Edwards has found his groove. He has been the best 3-point shooter in the league this season, a revelation for a 23-year-old who built his reputation with powerful drives to the basket. His finishing at the rim and decision-making in crunchtime can improve, but he is the unquestioned and worthy center of the Wolves universe.
Trade market: If the Mavericks would have called the Wolves before the Lakers and asked for Edwards in a Dončić trade, the Wolves would have said no. That’s how important he is to this team and this market.
Not going anywhere
Rudy Gobert
Contract: Year 1 of a three-year, $110 million deal.
Season: 10.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 65.2 FG percentage, 68.6 FT percentage.
Outlook: Gobert has played much better of late, averaging 13.6 points, 10.8 boards and 2.0 blocks in the last five games, a bit of a relief to the Wolves after a very sluggish start to the season. His rebounding numbers are near the lowest of his career and his offense has been clunkier than even his normal standard. Two weeks ago, Gobert acknowledged that he had not played up to his expectations. The Wolves need him to sustain this recent uptick if they’re going to become a team to be reckoned with in the playoffs.
Trade market: It wouldn’t be robust for a 32-year-old showing signs of regression, but it doesn’t matter. He is ineligible to be traded this season.
Naz Reid
Contract: Year 2 of a three-year, $42 million contract.
Season: 13.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 48.9 FG percentage, 42.3 3PT percentage, 79.1 FT percentage.
Outlook: Coming off an NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award, Reid struggled to find his shooting in the early portion of the season. He might have expected a starting role after Towns was traded, but he has found a great rhythm with Randle over the last month. A red-hot shooting stretch in January (he shot 57.5 percent on 80 3-point attempts) has his numbers back where they need to be. He sprained a finger on his right hand on Saturday against the Wizards, but the injury is not believed to be serious.
Trade market: Reid would have some suitors if the Wolves made him available. He has a player option on his contract for next season, which could make the Wolves consider moving him if they were worried about losing him this summer. But Minnesota is committed to retaining one of the most popular athletes in the Twin Cities and Naz Reid bobblehead night is planned for Target Center on Saturday. Safe to say he will be here.
Donte DiVincenzo
Contract: Year 2 of a four-year, $47 million deal.
Season: 11.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 39.7 FG percentage, 36.9 3PT percentage, 82.0 FT percentage.
Outlook: Another slow starter, it took a little time for DiVincenzo to find his place in Minnesota after the trade. There were some growing pains as he tried to find his place in the Wolves hierarchy. But he started playing well enough to earn a promotion from the bench to the starting lineup, a move that helped the Timberwolves get on a roll, which is what made the turf toe injury he suffered on Jan. 15 so difficult. He’s been everything they could have hoped for when they made the Towns trade.
Trade market: He would have no shortage of teams interested in him if the Wolves made him available. He has one of the best contracts in the league and is a combo guard who can shoot and guard multiple positions, exactly what most teams need. Also exactly why he’s staying put.
Only for a star
Jaden McDaniels
Contract: Year 1 of a five-year, $131 million deal.
Season: 10.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 46.2 FG percentage, 34.0 3PT percentage, 80.0 FT percentage.
Outlook: McDaniels may be the embodiment of the Wolves season so far. He started the season slow, stuck in a corner-shooting role that did not fit him. The leap that many hoped he would take in his fifth season was nowhere to be found. But he’s played much better of late, morphing from a catch-and-shoot player who couldn’t shoot to a more versatile offensive threat who attacks off the dribble and gets out in transition. His defense has re-emerged lately, too. One of the biggest reasons for confidence going forward is McDaniels is starting to live up to his contract.
Trade market: Even though the numbers haven’t been great, a 24-year-old with his measurables would garner a lot of interest. Would the Wolves have included him in a Fox package? Maybe. But it would take a major return for them to part with him.
Rookie Rob Dillingham has had his ups and downs this season, but the Timberwolves are high on him. (Ellen Schmidt / NBAE via Getty Images)
Rob Dillingham
Contract: Year 1 of a four-year, $28.5 million rookie deal.
Season: 5.8 points, 2.4 assists, 1.4 turnovers, 50.0 FG percentage, 43.8 3PT percentage, 42.9 FT percentage.
Outlook: The eighth overall pick is only just starting to get consistent minutes thanks to DiVincenzo’s injury. It’s been understandably up and down so far, but there have been more ups than downs. His ballhandling and shot creation is desperately needed on this team. Finch needs to start showing a little more trust in him, like going to him in the fourth quarter on Saturday against Washington when he played Conley all 12 minutes after Dillingham had a tough shift in the third quarter. There are going to be ugly moments, but there will be electric ones, too.
Trade market: He would draw interest from other teams for his offensive juice and his rookie contract. If the Wolves were to part with him, it would have to be as a main part of a package for an impact player. I don’t see that happening this week.
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It’s complicated
Julius Randle
Contract: Year 3 of a four-year, $117 million deal.
Season: 18.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 46.2 FG percentage, 34.2 3PT percentage, 81.1 FT percentage.
Outlook: The fit has been less than ideal. Putting a player who loves the ball in his hands but isn’t a great 3-point shooter into the power forward spot previously held by Towns has led to some hard-to-watch half-court possessions. While Towns has flourished in New York, Randle has labored in Minnesota. But while his scoring numbers have gradually gone down as the season has progressed, his effectiveness has risen. His net rating in December was plus-4.2 and in January was plus-6.1. And the Wolves have lost both games to bad teams since he went out with a groin strain.
Trade market: There isn’t much of one for a player with a $33 million option on his deal for next year. If the Wolves wanted to move Randle, they would likely have to incentivize another team to take him, and they’re not interested in that. The groin injury that could keep him out through the All-Star break doesn’t help matters. Trading him now would also almost certainly make them a worse team in the short term, and they don’t have their first-round pick in the draft so the benefit of a mini-tank is not there. Sorry Wolves fans, but they like Randle more than you do.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Contract: Year 2 of a two-year, $9 million deal.
Season: 8.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 44.2 FG percentage, 39.6 3PT percentage, 73.1 FT percentage.
Outlook: Alexander-Walker has been one of the most valuable members of the team this season, a super-consistent presence off the bench who knocks down open shots and defends at a high level. He is beloved in the locker room for the climb from the fringes of NBA rotation life to an integral piece of a winning team.
Trade market: This is why it’s complicated. Alexander-Walker is one of the best bargains in the entire league but will likely be due a huge raise this summer. Can the Wolves afford to keep him with their payroll swelling like it is? If not, they could look to move him. But his salary is so reasonable that it would be very difficult to find a fair trade in terms of value. The Wolves love NAW and want to keep him, so he will almost certainly remain on the roster through the deadline and, hopefully, beyond.
Mike Conley
Contract: Year 1 of a two-year, $21 million deal.
Season: 8.1 points, 4.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 36.7 FG percentage, 38.2 3PT percentage, 90.3 FT percentage.
Outlook: Conley has been so important to the Wolves since coming over in a trade with the Jazz. He is the adult in the room, a steadying hand that gets them through turbulent times. But he has shown signs of his age this season. His shooting inside the arc has fallen off a cliff. Finch still has great trust in him and Conley has found more of an identity in this new-look offense, but he is not where he was last season in terms of production.
Trade market: It seems reasonable that a team in need of a backup point guard would look at him, but at 37 the return would likely be too modest to merit moving someone of his importance to this group.
On the rise
Luka Garza
Contract: Year 1 of a two-year, $4.5 million deal.
Season: 3.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, 18 games, 49.0 FG percentage, 29.4 3PT percentage, 75.0 FT percentage.
Outlook: Garza is starting to get a little more run with Randle’s injury and he’s playing fairly well. “Silly me for not playing him more,” Finch recently said. He did not play well against Washington on Saturday, but he has shown to be a volume scorer in the scant minutes he’s gotten.
Trade market: I could see some teams being interested, but the salary is so low that it wouldn’t do the Wolves any good to move him. They love his work ethic. Finch called him one of his favorite players he’s ever coached. It’s doubtful he will be moved for another similar contract.
Jaylen Clark
Contract: Two-way.
Season: 3.3 points, 1.4 rebounds, eight games, 39.1 FG percentage, 30.0 3PT percentage, 83.3 FT percentage.
Outlook: Clark has come out of nowhere in the last week and played well, giving the Wolves some defensive tenacity. He has done enough early, it appears, to leapfrog Josh Minott in the rotation.
Trade market: Some teams have done their due diligence on Clark, but the Wolves like his potential. They want to give him more run and see what they have.
On the fringe
The Wolves have a few promising prospects in Minott, Leonard Miller and Terrence Shannon Jr. who have played only sparingly this season, if at all. They are intriguing players, but not the kind that would entice a notable deal on their own. Joe Ingles is on a minimum deal and of little use on the trade market.
Prediction
While blockbuster deals are happening around them in the West, there does not appear to be much there for the Wolves. Their internal outlook on the team’s chances has improved over the last two months, and their truly tradeable assets — players like Edwards, McDaniels, Reid and Dillingham — are considered a part of the team’s long-term core.
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If things hold as they are right now, I don’t see a move happening. Salary dumping Randle doesn’t make sense for their goals this season. And going out and acquiring another rotation player could get in the way of giving minutes to younger players like Dillingham, which has already been an issue this season.
Connelly hasn’t shied away from major deals early in his Wolves tenure, but this has the makings of a quiet deadline in Minnesota.
(Top photo of DeMar DeRozan, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert: David Berding / Getty Images)