Option traders expect substantial volatility across markets after Americans head to the polls on Tuesday.
But their anxieties surrounding the vote have apparently eased since August, according to an analysis from ORATS shared with MarketWatch earlier this week.
Based on prices of certain contracts expiring shortly after the vote, traders are expecting a 1.5% swing in either direction for an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. That’s down from 2.5% from over the summer. A similar dynamic has emerged in options tied to ETFs tracking gold, long-dated Treasury bonds and energy stocks.
“The chart for economic segments — including the S&P 500, Energy, Gold, and the 10-Year Bond Fund — shows consistent declines in implied moves since August. This indicates that market participants expect less volatility in these areas as we approach the election,” said Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS and a former options market-maker, in a report shared with MarketWatch.
Whether this shift is due to betting markets’ reflecting rising odds of a victory by former President Donald Trump, or some other reason, isn’t quite clear.