The S&P 500 Is on Track for a New High, Despite Fed Uncertainty

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The S&P 500 is on pace to hit its 26th record close for the year amid continued uncertainty on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The main market index was up 0.2% Monday as the trading day headed into the last hour of regular trading. The index has already marked the most records in the first half of a single year since 2021, when it set 34 records, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Today’s high would come despite looming questions about the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which is scheduled to be released this Wednesday. In March, the report showed an expectation of three cuts in 2024. Now economists are divided on whether the latest report will be revised down to two, one, or possibly no cuts.

“We think the economy can handle rates at current levels and that cutting preemptively would be a mistake because it would fuel a stock market meltup,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. He’s on team one rate cut.