S&P 500 Is Going Nowhere Through Year-End, Goldman’s Kostin Says

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(Bloomberg) — The S&P 500 Index is unlikely to deliver any more gains from now through the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin.

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The firm’s chief US equity strategist reiterated his 2024 price target on the benchmark of 5,200 in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, while noting he sees “roughly a flat return from now until the end of the year.”

That forecast is just below where the US stock benchmark is currently trading after a 10% advance since January. Kostin says the bank’s modeling — which incorporates the economy, earnings, valuation and money flow — implies no room for further upside. Goldman’s economists see real US gross domestic product growth this year of around 3% and the bank’s equity strategists project earnings growth of 8% in 2024, while highlighting that valuations are already historically high.

“The probability of a multiple expansion, while possible, is less probable,” Kostin said.

US stocks climbed Tuesday, with the S&P 500 edging in on another record high after recouping the bulk of its losses from a slump in April. Investors shrugged off a stronger-than-expected producer price index report as they await key consumer inflation data set for release Wednesday for clues on whether or not the Federal Reserve will be able to reduce interest rates later this year.

One upside risk to Kostin’s outlook is if officials dial back interest rates more aggressively than markets currently anticipate, he said, while emphasizing that’s not in the cards at this point.

“Thats not our base case,” Kostin said. “Our base case is that the market will trade at around this level of multiple or, in fact, an even lower multiple as we come toward the end of the year,” Kostin said.

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