Dow Slips From Record High as Rate-Cut Odds Retreat

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Stocks pulled back on Thursday after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history came to an end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 102 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was down 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 1.3%.

Walt Disney, which headlined the latest round of earnings, was falling, while Cisco Systems was on the rise.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was up to 3.6%. The 10-year yield was up to 4.11%.

“The economy should rebound the 1.5% to 2% GDP that was lost, but it may take into the new year to see it,” writes Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities. “The one question we have is when are we going to see official government data.”

Though the White House suggested October inflation and jobs data may not be released, economists told Barron’s they expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to publish the missing numbers.

The Federal Reserve, and traders betting on the central bank’s next move on rates, have been trying their best to navigate without government numbers. Traders see a 53.6% chance the central bank lowers interest rates by another quarter of a point on Dec. 10, which is down from 62.9% on Wednesday.

“Susan Collins of the Boston Fed was the latest to say that a December cut was not needed,” Brenner writes. “We disagree.”