U.S. Indices Technical Outlook:
- S&P 500 reversed yesterday but poised to test Feb/March lows
- Nasdaq 100 weaker and looks poised to first test last month’s lows
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Outlook: March Low Test Looks Near
The S&P 500 reversed with vigor yesterday, but it’s just a one-day reversal within a weak trend. It appears the market is set to test the March lows soon or worse. This could lead to a sustainable bottom or only a bounce, we will need to monitor price action should those key levels get tagged soon.
The first level to watch is at 4157, a higher low that was created after the panic low set on Feb 24. This is seen as possibly setting a low for a bounce, but it is the February 24 low at 4114 that has the most attention. The Russian invasion low is obviously significant.
A reversal at or from just under that low could set off another powerful bounce at the least. It would be ideal to see the VIX spike on such a move, indicating panic/capitulation in the market. Whether it leads to a major low or something more intermediate that fails will need to be monitored should the lows become relevant.
On the top-side, at this time any strength from here is viewed as likely to be transient. A failure to maintain a rally is seen as probable.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
The Nasdaq 100 is very close to the March low, which exceeded the Feb 24 low by a small amount. The low is 13020, and as is the case with the S&P a small flush through support and reversal could set the market up nicely to rally.
At this time the general trading bias remains lower with a bounce from here viewed as likely to fail soon. Watch the near-term low at 13788 as a level for the market to turn lower off of.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX